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| Afghanistan |
| Khalilzad Edges Closer to Pact With Taliban |
| 2019-08-29 |
| [FP] Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghan reconciliation, is on the verge of an agreement with the Taliban that would pave the way for the withdrawal of some 14,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan in exchange for guarantees that the war-wracked nation would not be used as a haven for international terrorism, according to diplomatic sources. Khalilzad will now mount a final push to persuade Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani, to accept the agreement ahead of the country’s Sept. 28 presidential election. If a deal is clinched, the United States will hold a signing ceremony with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, before an audience of representatives from key world powers, including from the region, Europe, and possibly China and Russia. After reaching a tentative deal with the Taliban during the ninth round of talks in Doha, Khalilzad is expected to travel to Kabul for two to three days to seek Ghani’s approval, according to a diplomatic source with contacts in the Afghan government and the Taliban. Khalilzad would then return to Doha to sign the pact with the Taliban’s chief negotiator, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the source said. The final pact, which is being translated into Dari and Pashto, will call for the phased withdrawal of U.S. troops over the next 15 to 18 months‐just in time for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. It will include a cease-fire, detail verifiable assurances that the Taliban will not permit terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda or the Islamic State to maintain a toehold in territory under their control, and set a date for intra-Afghan talks in Oslo, Norway. In anticipation of a deal, a team of scholars and diplomats has already arrived in Oslo to prepare the groundwork for the talks. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #8 The key here - what will lead Ghani to sign on the dotted line - is the continuation of US aid to Afghan security forces. That comes to $5b a year (page 16 below). https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2018-10/54219-oco_spending.pdf Najibullah kept the Afghan Communist government standing until Yeltsin cut off his aid. He literally ran out of gas. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2019-08-29 16:27 |
| #7 Except it’s not just ISIS vs Taliban. There are also the Haqqani group, Uighurs, Chechens, European jihadi tourists attached to other groups for training and general Muslim happiness... and probably others that I don’t know about or can’t remember. Afghanistan is a jihadi incubator — lots of groups are lying up there, either as a safe space for rest and recuperation or as a growing medium until they get big enough to go elsewhere. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2019-08-29 15:17 |
| #6 Echo that. But maybe indirect help and assist can give the pro-democrat Afghans a fighting chance. Use the ISIS-Taliban feud to keep both islamist outfits in a certain vicinity and then strike them together. Or a coordinated nuke attack on the Afghan-Pak border where most Taliban power originates. In either case, everyone's troops shall have to clear out. It's crazy to stay there if this half-measured 'management of expectations' is all you're gonna do. There is no solution to be had, except by exterminating millions. |
| Posted by: Dron66046 2019-08-29 14:09 |
| #5 This is not good. A mass fatality asymmetrical attack on political and economic centers in the US is not a fatal mistake. The West is about to formally acknowledge a humiliating defeat in a war where nothing short of a clear victory should have been acceptable. Putin, Kim, Xi, Khamenei, et al are watching this spectacle and they're drawing their conclusions. Precipitous withdrawal would be problematic, but still preferable to this explicit humiliation. 'Liberated Afghanistan' is a sharia abomination antithetical to any notion of decency as defined by Western civilization. The only redeeming quality being its passive aggressive nature. Let it sink. </rant> |
| Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2019-08-29 11:59 |
| #4 Go ahead make nice with the Talibunnies. Simpler to have to deal with just the one Islamofascist group. |
| Posted by: jpal 2019-08-29 09:58 |
| #3 It will include a cease-fire, We know about hudnas. Maximum ten years, and must be broken as soon as the Muslim party is capable of returning to jihad. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2019-08-29 08:48 |
| #2 ...assurances that the Taliban will not permit other terrorist organizations such as... |
| Posted by: Dron66046 2019-08-29 02:52 |
| #1 Since the current 'talks' involve former GITMO detainees, one might expect a TB condition to likely include the release of all TB personnel currently held at GITMO. Not a visual or news headline we'll likely see before the 2020 election. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2019-08-29 00:39 |