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| The Grand Turk |
| Zeihan: Turkey’s Growing Pains |
| 2018-08-14 |
| American relations with Turkey got very interesting last week. An ongoing disagreement over the status of an American pastor, Andrew Craig Brunson, who thought it a good idea to proselytize in a country who officially, firmly, repeatedly warned him such actions were both unwelcome and unwise, has built up into a full-throated international incident. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s base is Islamist social conservatives while Donald Trump’s core coalition includes Christian social conservatives. The Turks arrested Brunson, the Trump administration wants Brunson released, the Turks said no, and here we are. Turkey’s currency, the lira, has been struggling for years in no small part due to the political pressure Erdogan and his supporters have placed on the central bank to keep interest rates artificially low. Rising inflation peaked over the weekend when the lira fell to record lows, with Erdogan still voicing support for interest rates to remain as low as possible. (High interest rates are typically anathema to construction firms, and much of Erdogan’s political machinery has been financed in the past by large Turkish firms who have benefitted from the infrastructure and construction boom since his time in office.) Fuel was added to the fire of monetary weakness from a once unthinkable source: the United States. On August 10 U.S. President Donald Trump announced a doubling of the United States’ tariffs on imports of Turkish steel and aluminum, expressly linking the new tariff levels to the Brunson dispute. This is hardly the first time the Americans have used economic sanctions to get their way. Sanctions against strategic rivals such as the Soviet Union or North Korea are a time-honored tradition, as are sanctions in preparation for military action such as in the months leading up to the pair of invasions of Iraq. Similarly, tariffs are a common tool in economic arguments and trade disputes. But to my recollection, this is the first time the Americans have ever used such tools in a political dispute against an ally. A few things come from this: First, the American-Turkish alliance is over. I’m not talking NATO here – NATO is already dead. I’m talking bilateral arrangements. The United States and Turkey have had a long and largely productive military relationship since the 1950s, with Turkish military bases proving central to American foreign policy goals as regards the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, the former Yugoslavia, the Black Sea, and the Caucasus. The partnership has been built on a pair of unshakable facts. Turkey’s long history and relatively diversified, robust economy makes it the only power touching the Middle East that is capable, stable, reliable and whose assistance doesn’t generate more problems than it solves. Turkey’s location between Europe and Asia, between the former Soviet space and the Mediterranean, makes it the central clearinghouse for any out-of-region power that seeks to project power into all four zones. During the first Gulf War, the Turks allowed the US to use Incirlik airbase to attack Iraqi positions in exchange for financial aid. After Erdogan rose to power in 2003 and denied the Americans’ use of Incirlik due to concerns over Kurdish empowerment, the US military had to find longer, costlier workarounds to achieve their goals. Turkey lost out on the economic aid, but demonstrated its leverage. ... |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #11 Actually the Trump administration did play, You’re right and I should have remembered, Elmerert Hupens2660. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2018-08-14 23:02 |
| #10 Egypt is doing surprisingly well, all things considered. Or better than I expected, at any rate. What I don't get is why Erdy punked Trump on the hostage swap. Sure, there is some short-term gloating, but there is a long-term downside to pissing off one of the big dogs. And what ever happened to honor among thieves? |
| Posted by: SteveS 2018-08-14 20:36 |
| #9 Turkey’s long history and relatively diversified, robust economy makes it the only power touching the Middle East that is capable, stable, reliable and whose assistance doesn’t generate more problems than it solves. Bullshit. Jordan is a better ally, and perhaps Egypt if things keep getting better. |
| Posted by: Frank G 2018-08-14 20:21 |
| #8 "America is less the bull in the china shop and more the flamethrower pointing at a house of cards." |
| Posted by: 3dc 2018-08-14 17:16 |
| #7 Actually the Trump administration did play, though 'playing' was a mistake in this instance. Brunson was supposed to be freed in exchange for Israel releasing a Turkish Hamas operative. Ms Hamas was then freed, Brunson wasn't. Erdogan simply refused to honor his obligation. He altered the deal and told Trump to pray that he wouldn't alter it further. |
| Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2018-08-14 14:06 |
| #6 Anybody who invades Russia makes a mistake, Herb. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2018-08-14 13:53 |
| #5 The entire reason we had Turkey in NATO in the first place was to flank Russia. Thus in Operation Barbarossa Part 2 we can flank them and present them with two avenues of advance: one from NATO territory in Europe and one from Turkey into the Caucasus. Thus we avoid the mistakes of the Nazis. |
| Posted by: Herb McCoy 2018-08-14 13:49 |
| #4 First round as a warning, 3dc. We can actually threaten Erdogan’s sleeping arrangements the next time. Besides, the public spaces are seen by the public — ever so much more embarrassing. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2018-08-14 13:31 |
| #3 Why the public wing? Private would one would be a much better target. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2018-08-14 13:25 |
| #2 The good pastor has been quietly tending his flock in a quiet corner of Turkey for over two decades without any significant issues until his recent arrest, if I understand correctly. He was taken up by the authorities strictly to be traded for Fethullen Gulen in the time-honoured Moslem way seen also in Iran, only President Trump is refusing to play. I suspect more Americans and other Westerners will be collected for the purpose until the president either gives in or does something drastic to demonstrate to Sultin Erdogan I that he needs to make much better choices. I would suggest destroying a public wing of his fancy new palace, though that’s not at all diplomatic. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2018-08-14 11:55 |
| #1 The American/Turkish alliance has been dead for a while. Erdogan is going full islamic military dictatorship and state. I do disagree that the US is suddenly leaving the ME. While we might leave Turkey, I can't see our leaders giving up the rest of the area especially with Russia and Iran trying to move in again. Turkey might bounce back, but there is no guarantee of it or it becoming a regional power. If it takes Iran's path, it will see its power diminished as it will not only be more isolated from the west, but it will be clashing with Iran and the other powers in the area for control. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2018-08-14 10:00 |