[ATimes]The Pyeongchang Winter Olympics offered a diplomatic breathing space with regard to tensions on the Korean peninsula. Asia Times' Northeast Asia correspondent assesses what might happen next.5. How dangerous is the Trump administration?
Trump himself appears more politically flexible than his predecessors in the White House. He could order military action – or he could sit down and build a personal relationship with Kim. Neither Bush nor Obama went to either extreme. So the risk outlook is higher – but so is the chance of a solution.
9. What is the timeline?
Winter Olympics end on February 25
Winter Paralympics start on March 9
Winter Paralympics end on March 18
Assuming there is no diplomatic breakthrough, allied military drills will begin any time between March 18 and early April.
14. Should the world be concerned?
Yes. Capital markets have proven remarkably resilient against North Korean provocations, but even a limited or surgical US strike on North Korea could give a massive jolt to regional and global markets.
17. How high is Korea risk at present?
Significant. Currently, most analysts see the probability of a unilateral US strike as low – sub-20%. Even so, last year’s peninsular tensions were arguably higher than at any times since the height of the Asian Cold War in 1968 – the year North Korea launched commando attacks on the South and seized a US spy ship, and the Tet Offensive got underway in South Vietnam.