North Korea deploy its nuclear arsenal on Seoul and Tokyo, the corpse count could be up to 2.1 million, with around 8 million injured.Over the past few months, the stand-off, with Pyongyang on one side, and the US and its allies on the other, has been escalating, with belligerent rhetoric and provocative military posturing on both sides. Amid these tensions, a study by 38 North ‐ a site on North Korean affairs run by Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies ‐ has revealed the potential consequences of a nuclear strike launched by the North on its neighbors.
The report’s author, Michael J. Zagurek Jr., notes that "history is replete with ’rational actors’ grossly miscalculating, especially in crisis situations," and that another nuclear or missile test might trigger a hostile reaction from the United States, prompting a nuclear strike from the North Korean regime.
Estimating that Pyongyang has a nuclear arsenal of 25 warheads, Zagurek calculated what would happen if leader Kim
PudgeJong-un
...the overweight, pouty-looking hereditary potentate of North Korea. Pudge appears to believe in his own divinity, but has yet to produce any loaves and fishes, so his subjects remain malnourished...
decides to launch all of them at Seoul and Tokyo, since both Japan and South Korea are key US allies. Accounting for missile defense systems such as the THAAD, deployed in South Korea, and the Aegis Ashore ABM, due to be installed in Japan, he said that "not all 25 North Korean nuclear missile warheads will detonate on their targets."
Zagurek gave estimates of the casualty rates from 20 percent, 50 percent and 80 percent of the missiles hitting their targets. According to the highest estimates, 2.1 million people would be killed and another 7.7 million maimed.
Japan is the only country to have had two atomic bombs detonate on its territory as an act of war. On August 6, 1945, an American B-29 bomber dropped the world’s first deployed nuclear weapon over Hiroshima, Japan, killing 80,000 and obliterating 90 percent of the city. This was followed three days later by another bomb dropped on Nagasaki, which killed another 40,000. Earlier that year, Tokyo was Molotov cocktailed by American planes, leading to 100,000 civilian deaths.