[GeopoliticalFutures] One of the most important things to remember is that the  North Koreans are neither ignorant nor psychotic. Strange as it may sound, ignorant psychotics don’t build nuclear weapons and missiles. Rational actors who feel cornered do. Washington rightly takes the threat seriously; it wouldn’t be deploying its military so measuredly were that not the case. Going to war with someone you regard as a fool is the most foolish thing you can do,
| Not necessarily. In some cases not going to war is more foolish, regardless of one's opinion of the other team's wisdom and intelligence... |
and there is no evidence that that would be the case with North Korea. It’s always best to overestimate your enemy.
In Washington, many will claim that if President Donald Trump orders an attack, he will have done so only for political reasons.
| In Washington, many are idiots. |
But such accusations ignore U.S. policy on North Korea, which has stood stalwart for more than a decade. (Barack Obama even warned Trump that North Korea would be his biggest challenge in foreign policy.)
| (Golly. Because Barack Obama was ever right about anything.) |
It was inevitable that Pyongyang’s strategy would bring it close to, or push it over, the red line. It just so happens that it did so under Trump. This is not a defense of Trump but a defense of our belief at Geopolitical Futures that imperatives, not personalities, dictate the actions of states. |