[WSJ] What’s striking about the French presidential election is the extent to which the two front-runners share a basic analysis of the choice facing the country. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Front, and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old former economy minister who quit Francois Hollande...the Socialist president of La Belle France, an economic bad joke for la Belle France but seemingly a foreign policy realist...
’s government to stand as an independent, are poles apart politically. But both agree that the defining issue is La Belle France’s membership of the eurozone.
Both point to the widening divergence between Germany and La Belle France’s economic performance during the past decade as evidence that the status quo isn’t sustainable. The National Front points to a recent International Monetary Fund study that suggested the euro is up to 15% undervalued in Germany and 6% overvalued in La Belle France as proof that La Belle France is at a competitive disadvantage. It argues that the only way La Belle France can remain a member of what one party official calls the "fixed eurozone exchange-rate regime" is to pursue an internal devaluation by cutting back on social protections and driving down wages. The alternative is to quit the eurozone.
Mr. Macron implicitly agrees. He wants La Belle France to stay in the euro and is campaigning for changes to the country’s public sector, welfare system and labor rules, which he says are needed to restore the country’s competitiveness. He advocates a more-flexible welfare system and labor market that protects individuals rather than jobs and allows employers to strike deals with workers at a company level rather than across sectors.
Ms. Le Pen, on the other hand, believes there is no appetite for cuts to welfare, which the National Front says provides an important economic as well as social safety net, helping to maintain household consumption. It argues that the only way to preserve the welfare system is to quit the eurozone and devalue the currency.