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India-Pakistan |
Mounting tensions |
2016-10-01 |
![]() What is clear is that something did happen at several points along the LoC in the early hours of Thursday morning. At the very least, Pak and Indian forces exchanged fire in which two Pak soldiers died. That is a sad, if long-standing, reality of the region: whenever tensions between the two countries are high, parts of the LoC see live ammunition fired, the lives of local populations disrupted and several casualties among security personnel and civilians. Indeed, two summers ago, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi newly installed in office, the LoC saw a series of skirmishes that progressively escalated until reaching crisis point around mid-October. That set of events was supposedly meant to herald the start of a new, so-called get-tough policy by India. Eventually, better sense prevailed and by September 2015 the DG Rangers and DG Border Security Force met and agreed to renew the LoC ceasefire. The Pathankot attack earlier this year, which involved infiltration across the Working Boundary, did not materially change the situation along the LoC, but unrest in India-held Kashmire and the Uri attack appear to have done so. At this point, it is imperative to establish the facts quickly. The wild cheering that greeted the government’s accounts of events in India may become a dangerous precedent and create a new set of expectations in a region where war in an overtly nuclear environment would be catastrophic for both countries. Facts, however, would help nudge the situation towards de-escalation, given signalling from the Pak state and Indian government. Pak policymakers, both civilian and military, have reacted sensibly, and appear to be resisting Indian attempts to bait Pakistain. But the media echo chamber -- jingoistic, fiercely nationalistic and often removed from reality -- can have unpredictable effects, especially when it comes to whipping up warlike sentiment among the populations of the two countries. Quickly establishing two sets of facts, of events along the LoC on Thursday and the Uri attack, would switch a media narrative from punch and counter-punch and allow the two states to work on how to ratchet down tensions along the LoC. The Modi government, despite its hawkish instincts and muscle-flexing, has indicated an awareness of the dangers of unrestrained rhetoric. Facts will help clear the miasma and introduce the necessary rationality into a debate that is increasingly unhinged. |
Posted by:Fred |