#1 Some inside-baseball:
Some years ago, ANC leaders mooted the idea of putting the cream of its leadership crop in local councils, because it was this level of government that could make the biggest difference to people's lives. That seemed like a great plan for the country, at least while mayors were deployed from a national level. Then came 2007, when populist sentiment in the ANC swept former president Thabo Mbeki and his centralist grip on things out of power. Instead of national appointing them, mayoral candidates for the ANC would now be nominated by the party's regions, just like premiers would be nominated by the provincial executive committees. Majoritarian democracy like this always seems to break down when there are two more or less equal factions not agreeing on things, and where the party’s grip on power is weakening.
In at least two such municipalities, there is evidence that the party wants to put its best foot forward to lure back straying voters.A recent opinion poll showed that the party could yet lose its grip on the metro in the August 3 local elections, whereas previously it pulled through with the help of trade unions like the National Union of Metalworkers. But these are no longer on board the tripartite alliance ship, and ANC leaders knew an urgent intervention was needed. Efforts to appoint a compromise candidate, who rose above the fierce local faction fighting, resulted in the disaster that was the aged Ben Fihla, before well-known soccer boss Danny Jordaan was roped in.
Former minister and bright star Thoko Didiza, with her 14 years' experience in national government, seems a good choice too for Tshwane. She's a high-level import into the metro, and could lure sceptical voters. Unlike Jordaan, she actually sits on the ANC's national executive committee and serves in a local branch, which could indicate that she's in touch with the issues. Unlike Jordaan, she wasn't born in the city where she hopes to govern, but she has lived there for a while.
But why her? The story amongst analysts in the party is that Gauteng brought her in with an eye on the ANC's 2017 elective congress. Didiza – who resigned from government when Mbeki resigned, and who only made her comeback to politics four years later – was brought in by the province, more specifically by provincial ANC chairperson Paul Mashatile. Mashatile is a vocal critic of President Jacob Zuma. Mashatile needs someone, like Didiza, who will strengthen his hand ahead of 2017, party analysts say. His chosen candidate for Johannesburg, Parks Tau, is already in place, which means he has a grip on two of the three metros in the province.
Given divisions in the ANC in the region, would it have been better to leave it at the choice of the branches without muddling? Would it have prevented Tshwane from burning this week anyway?
If the decision to nominate Didiza stands, and if she wins the city for the ANC, she would have to rise above what is good only for the party – appeasing the factions by showering them with resources and deployments – and do what is good for the country, by governing the city by the book. These demands can be in conflict with each other. On the other hand, should her candidature not bring the ANC back into power in the metro, and should it slip into opposition hands, who knows if the ANC will do what's best for the city and capitulate. Or will the disgruntled ones at the bottom do what seems to be good for the ANC, but what is really catastrophic for everyone, and push the self-destruct button? |
[IOL] Pretoria - The hotel is located among embassy buildings in suburban Arcadia - and it was in this three-storey establishment that the plan to render the capital city ungovernable was finalised.