Comments

You have commented 339 times on Rantburg.

Your Name

Your e-mail (optional)

Website (optional)

	My Original Nic Pic-a-Nic Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Foto

Submit your comments on this article

Home Front: Politix

Vladimir Putin Has Everything He Needs to Blackmail Hillary Clinton

2016-06-16

RUMINT (Rumor Intelligence) is rife with reports that Russian intelligence agencies are preparing to release emails "hacked" from Hillary Clinton's rogue Internet email server.

Agreed, this sounds a bit like a blackmail plot in a 1940s radio detective thriller or a soap opera. Except it isn't. We live in a world where blood gets spilled.

I've read through several reports about the possible Russian information release, ranging from the staid, professional analysis to the wild Hollywood excitement--breathless. One of the more interesting analyses appeared a few days ago on oilprice.com, a site devoted to analyzing the global oil industry and forecasting trends:

"Reliable intelligence sources in the West have indicated that warnings had been received that the Russian Government could in the near future release the text of email messages intercepted from U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's private e-mail server from the time she was U.S. Secretary of State. The release would, the messaging indicated, prove that Secretary Clinton had, in fact, laid open U.S. secrets to foreign interception by putting highly-classified Government reports onto a private server in violation of U.S. law, and that, as suspected, the server had been targeted and hacked by foreign intelligence services."

Rest at link.

Posted by:gorb

#6 #2 As I've said yesterday, how can you blackmail somebody who's: (i) has no shame, and (ii) believes herself to be immune from persecution?

A most excellent question, since Hillary is way beyond the "a dead girl or a live boy" point. But America is certainly vulnerable to world opinion and outrage.

The opportunity here for anyone playing the Disinformation Game is that no one can refute whatever you decide to make up. Sure, you and the original parties know differently, but what are they going to say, "No, you're lying! Here are the *real* secret cables" ?

Examples? Talking smack about political opponents or friendly world leaders; Back channel discussion about how we knew in advance our latest drone zapp would destroy a kindergarten, a girl scout troop and a home for unwed bunnies as well as the latest Mr #3; The Iranian agreements are a plan to *bleep* the Saudis, and so on.

And all quite believable since it is either true or things people already suspect.

Posted by: SteveS 2016-06-16 21:40

#5 My feeling is that Putin would prefer Trump as someone who is a pragmatic businessman he can deal with. Rather than Clinton who is hostage to numerous foreign interests who probably have some serious dirt on her.

Posted by: phil_b 2016-06-16 18:02

#4 Sorry, sometimes the wind catches my sails.

Posted by: Skidmark 2016-06-16 17:30

#3 BDA modeling often begins with the worst (or Best) case scenario, as in "They know everything", and builds a weighted correlation matrix of events that might lead to that conclusion.
Risk-managed dependent event streams are often used in Project Management as the 'critical path', or are used with events as constraint variables in goal seeking Operations Research models.
If 'the Russians' do release incriminating detail, it won't be much. They 'shape' outcomes. Just enough to make Hilarity ineligible and Kerry (for example) less least desirable.
While many (here) would prefer a scenario wherein she, the Clintons, the Democrats and the Obama administration are crushed, shredded and salted, it is more likely that an information release will shape a more favorable, sympathetic and malleable candidate.
Some information will also be made available to closed circles, that will never make the public social forums. A typical extortion tactic when the threat of release is greater than the impact of release.

Posted by: Skidmark 2016-06-16 17:28

#2 As I've said yesterday, how can you blackmail somebody who's: (i) has no shame, and (ii) believes herself to be immune from persecution?

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2016-06-16 17:06

#1 This is a speculation, a scenario. However, the U.S. military and NATO regularly use speculative scenarios to analyze verifiable as well as potential threats. They use scenarios to create field exercises to train troops for potential operations in non-speculative, for damn real on-going wars.

The truth is, Hillary Clinton doesn’t know what the Russians may or may not know—nor does Barack Obama. The FBI and CIA might have some good guesses, but they don’t know for certain. In the mirror world of intelligence, it is possible the Kremlin doesn’t know what it knows.

Two very accurate bits of information. Brain storming so-called "speculative scenarios" are particularly healthy and productive exercises.

"Not knowing what they know" is quite difficult to combat. When one has arrived at that point, the assumption must be made that everything is known and the damage assessment framed as such.

Thanks for posting my favorite likeness of the Beest.

Posted by: Besoeker 2016-06-16 17:01

00:00