...the Pak province bordering Kandahar and Uruzgun provinces in Afghanistan and Sistan Baluchistan in Iran. Its native Baloch propulation is being displaced by Pashtuns and Punjabis and they aren't happy about it...
in a US drone strike. While confusion still persists over the news made known to the world initially by US officials, and subsequently corroborated by Afghan officials and the Afghan Taliban, the security equation in the Pak-Afghan region has changed once again.
Pakistain, the country that is alleged to have hosted Mullah Mansour, and said to have helped him ascend to the top of the Taliban leadership and nudged the group to the negotiating table with Kabul
...the capital of Afghanistan. Home to continuous fighting from 1992 to 1996 between the forces of would-be strongman and Pak ISI/Jamaat-e-Islami sock puppet Gulbuddin Hekmayar and the Northern Alliance, a period which won Hek the title
Most Evil Man in the Worldand didn't do much for the reputations of the Northern Alliance guys either....
, is left with unanswered questions and is at the receiving end of considerable international finger-pointing.
Yet again the morass that has been Afghan policy -- for many states, but perhaps most consistently for Pakistain over the past three decades -- looks set to lead a number of countries into an uncertain future with few good options.
Five years since the late Osama bin Laden
... who is now among the dear departed, though not among the dearest...
was killed in Abbottabad
... A pleasant city located only 30 convenient miles from Islamabad. The city is noted for its nice weather and good schools. It is the site of Pakistain's military academy, which was within comfortable walking distance of the residence of the late Osama bin Laden....
, and less than a year since it was revealed, though never conclusively proved, that Mullah Omar
... a minor Pashtun commander in the war against the Soviets who made good as leader of the Taliban. As ruler of Afghanistan, he took the title
Leader of the Faithful. The imposition of Pashtunkhwa on the nation institutionalized ignorance and brutality in a country already notable for its own fair share of ignorance and brutality...
too had died on Pak soil, Mullah Mansour’s reported death in Pakistain is not altogether surprising.
Pak officials have acknowledged that the so-called influence, though not control, that the state here has over the Taliban is partly a result of providing sanctuary to Afghan Taliban leaders. If there were no sanctuary, there would be no influence -- and certainly none of the control that the outside world accuses Pakistain of having over the Taliban.
Yet, it is troubling that Mullah Mansour was apparently allowed to move freely on Pak soil even as it became clear that the Taliban he controlled were neither lowering the intensity of the war they are waging against the Afghan state nor really looking for a way to start dialogue.
While Pakistain has rightly insisted that it cannot realistically be expected to take military action on Pak soil against the Afghan Taliban, surely the freedom of movement that friendly Taliban leaders are believed to still enjoy is not in Pakistain’s interests.
What is indisputably in the interest of Afghanistan, Pakistain and other regional and international powers is for the Afghan question to be settled through dialogue. However,
a hangover is the wrath of grapes...
given that the US has now bluntly stated that the Taliban leader was an impediment to negotiations and reportedly eliminated him, it is not clear who dialogue can be conducted with among the group or even if the Taliban will be able to stay united.
Whatever the case, Pakistain should be wary of repeating the process that led to Mullah Mansour’s accession and the determined attempt to unify the Taliban behind him.
With new strains in relations with Afghanistan and the US, Pakistain must be clear about what it believes it can deliver and set realistic expectations. Otherwise, the regional security situation may deteriorate further.