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| Africa North |
| Jihadis’ long-term goal in Mali is to make France back off |
| 2015-11-22 |
| The attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, reportedly carried out by al-Qaida affiliate al-Mourabitoun, has compounded interest in terrorism in the region, in part because it comes in the wake of the attack in Paris. Whether there is a connection between the two is an important question, given the presence of French nationals in the hotel, as well as the ongoing military involvement of France in Mali’s fight against terrorism. While many have concentrated on whether the hotel attack was the work of Islamic State – it was not – the more concrete worry should be what this attack demonstrates while the French regional anti-terror operation continues. The presence of jihadi groups in Mali prompted the French to intervene in January 2013, when the mostly al-Qaida affiliated militants were making their way towards Bamako. Following the intervention, the militant groups withdrew and “set up shop” in other countries in the region, particularly in Libya, which has remained a crucial destabilising factor. Thus, although the operation was deemed a success for having caused the militants to flee, this in fact caused a regionalisation of the threat by prompting them to operate from other areas. As a result, last year the French launched Operation Barkhane, with the aim of insulating the chaos in Libya. In this context, the significant expansion of militant activity beyond the core theatre of operation in the north of Mali, which included an attack against the Byblos Hotel in Sevare, as well as smaller-scale incidents along the Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mauritanian borders, underscores continued attempts by militant groups to challenge the French, UN and local counter-terrorism efforts. So Friday’s attack in Bamako is not surprising, given that the capital has remained a high-ranking target for these groups, which have demonstrated their ability to successfully carry out attacks there. That said, although this resurgence and expansion of militant activity proves that counter-terrorist actions have not been sufficient, it does not necessarily mean that the ongoing efforts are for naught, or that Operation Barkhane is a failure. The French have tasked themselves and their African counterparts with a very complicated operation. Many factors hinder their efforts, including vast desert areas that are hard to monitor, the ongoing destabilisation caused by Libya, as well as the porous nature of borders in the region that enable the smuggling operations that finance militant activities. The need for the international community to increase its involvement in Mali is underlined by the continued ability of militant groups to reach Bamako. The situation in Mali is highly volatile and likely to remain so. More significantly, this undertaking has made France an important target for militant groups, with its involvement in other campaigns across the world serving to do the same. As a result, the connection between the Paris attacks and the siege at the Bamako Radisson Blu is best understood through a global lens. France being targeted in Mali is most certainly also a result of its historical presence in the country and the region, although the active international role it has taken in the global counter-terror efforts has made it an enemy of militant groups. In a global effort where international players are akin to chess pieces in a worldwide competition between rival terrorist networks, the question remains as to whether the growing number of attacks against France will deter it from being as active as it has been thus far. One thing is certain, however: the Bamako attack demonstrates that al-Qaida remains alert and active in the Sahel. Bat-el Ohayon is president of AfriQue Consulting Group, a geopolitical and risk mitigation company |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #4 OTOH WORLD NEWS > [Toronto Sun] ISIS MESSAGE CALLS FOR ATTACKS ON CANADA. ISIS getting the Mackensizes + France, Quebecois riled up. Ditto the Ojibway, Blackfeet, + Canada's various Indian Nations??? [1990's "LAST OF THE MOHICANS" here]. * SAME > 1000 ISIS SLEEPERS IN US + CANADA: EXPERT. * [Times of India] ISIS CLAIMS ITS PRESENCE FROM TUNISIA TO BANGLADESH. and * RELATED SAME > [Deccan Herald] [We] BROUGHT PARIS TO ITS KNEES, [Are]PREPARING FOR ATTACK IN BANGLADESH: ISIS. India-Pakistan-China. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2015-11-22 22:31 |
| #3 As per WAFF, and regardless of whether France "backs off" or not, looks like Darth Vlad = Russia is threatening to intervene + bomb Any + All Hard Boyz in Mali as Russia does in Syria-Iraq??? Meanwhile, NOT to be outdone by RUSSIA ... * CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > THREE CHINESE AMONG 20 DEAD [in new Mali terror attack] | [SCMP] THREE CHINESE AMONG 20 DEAD IN MALI: TROOPS RAID WHILE LUXURY MALI HOTEL WHERE ISLAMIST GUNMEN REMAIN. * SAME, LONDON EXPRESS.UK > TIME TO ACT: CHINA [to?]LAUNCHES WAR ON ISIS AFTER TERRORISTS "EXECUTE CHINESE HOSTAGE" [Fan Jinghu]. Finally FTLG. versus * CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > FRANCE + RUSSIA GOT IN THE WAY OF ATTEMPT BY BEIJING TO PAY HOSTAGE RANSOM | [SCMP] CHINA PLAN TO RESCUE ISLAMIC STATE HOSTAGE JINGHU "FOILED BY RUSSIAN AND FRENCH AIRSTRIKES". Uh, uh, OOOOOOPPPPPSIES??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2015-11-22 22:22 |
| #2 But short term, getting the French soldiers to leave would be helpful to the long term goal of adding a solid conquest to the caliphate. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2015-11-22 18:44 |
| #1 no. Jihadi long term goal in mali is to establish the global caliphate under sharia the same as every islamist fascist around the world incorrect analysis leads to incorrect target selection |
| Posted by: anon1 2015-11-22 10:30 |