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Economy
Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Prices
2015-11-03
Kopits offers an interesting thought experiment. If the industry in question were, say, automobiles rather than oil, there is no question that such an arrangement would not be framed in the same manner. Imagine that the world thought it reasonable that GM or Ford could take as much market share as possible, and Toyota was expected to slash production if there weren't enough customers left over. It is an absurd scenario, but not so different from the world of oil.

Moreover, while cutting production would help to increase prices, OPEC would lose out from selling less oil. It is not clear why OPEC should, in effect, subsidize higher cost production from around the world. Saudi Arabia tried to cut production in the 1980s to rescue prices from rock bottom levels, but it only led to the loss of market share. It is no wonder that the oil kingdom is not keen to go that route again.

The U.S. on the other hand, has aggressively increased output. It is easy to see that much of the responsibility for the crash in oil prices stems from a massive spending spree in the U.S. shale patch, which increased output by around 4 million barrels per day between 2011 and the peak in 2015, nearly doubling production from 5.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 9.6 mb/d. OPEC's production, meanwhile, hasn't changed dramatically over the same time period.

U.S. production is now down by about 500,000 barrels per day since April. Oil prices will rise over the next year or so as U.S. shale is forced to cut back. That adjustment - high-cost suppliers forced out - is how markets are supposed to work.
Posted by:Sven the pelter

#2  Part of this has to do with the idea of limited oil supply. If you buy into that and project the curves forward, at some point in the not too distant future demand outpaces supply. Prices above $100/bbl were predicated on this happening.

Fracking, of course, has changed all that. Worldwide economic doldrums haven't helped either. Anyway, now that no one can claim insufficient supply anytime soon, pricing has come back to non-speculative levels.

Obama and his team have been the hardest hit, but many terror states are feeling the pinch as well.

Fracking - is there anything it can't do?
Posted by: Iblis   2015-11-03 13:44  

#1  High prices led to increased US drilling - and fracking, with good success. This increased supply led to decreased prices - which put those who relied on high prices in a bind. Leveraged oil companies and countries like KSA that depend on oil cash then are forced to increase production, even at a loss, just to stay 'in business' today. Of course that forces prices lower, until enough players are squeezed out of the business and supply drops. Rinse and repeat, as we have been doing for 100 years. (It was Rockefeller's monopoly that broke the boom and bust cycle for a while.)
Posted by: Glenmore   2015-11-03 13:04  

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