[DAWN] MANY Paks are thrilled by the news originating from two think tanks in Washington. Although no real evidence has been presented, they claim that the Pak nuclear arsenal may become the world's third largest over the next five to 10 years. The current number, estimated at around 120 Hiroshima-sized warheads, could increase to around 350. This would exceed numbers held by La Belle France (290), China (240), and UK (190).Is the sky the limit? If not, what is the number that Pakistain "must have"? Seventy years ago, just one bomb had turned Hiroshima to rubble. Today, if Pakistain and India use even half their arsenals, the radioactive ash and smoke would destroy not just both countries but also cause a global catastrophe. Nevertheless, neither specifies a cap. The only figures I have ever seen are speculations published by a retired Pak air force officer.
His logic goes something like this: adequate deterrence requires two Indian cities to be hit with five nuclear bombs each. Assume 50pc probability of successfully penetrating enemy defences. Suppose also that 50pc of Pakistain's nuclear weapons are destroyed in an Indian pre-emptive first strike. Using rules of arithmetic that even a 10-year old knows, he puts the desired number at 40 bombs. Then, changing probabilities from 50pc to 90pc, he raises the cap to a staggering 1,000! For the reader: change two cities to three, and five bombs to six, and calculate the change. It's huge!