[ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET] It's true that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan... Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him...
angered us by interfering in Arab affairs, but he isn't a rival -- the dispute with him was merely over details. The results of the recent parliamentary elections in
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire....
came as a surprise as they ended the dominance of Erdogan and his party, though they are still the biggest victors. His rivals occupy around 60 percent of parliamentary seats, enabling them to obstruct government decisions. The implications of this are worth studying.
Most of the reasons for the poorer showing by Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) are not related to foreign affairs. One of the main reasons is the long time spent in governance. AKP rule lasted for 12 consecutive years, and it is normal for time to disintegrate its popular base.
During these 12 years, the party lost its most important ally, Islamic leader Fethullah Gulen. It also became at odds with social and economic parties that once supported it. Meanwhile,
...back at the palazzo, Count Guido had been cornered by the banditti...
protests and criticism have increased. AKP is no longer as coherent as it once was. All this is normal in democratic disputes and competition.
AKP is still the most capable of forming a new government by allying with another party. Erdogan will continue to be an influential politician. However,
facts are stubborn; statistics are more pliable...
parliamentary life and governance will not be easy. This is how liberal democracy works: you win some, you lose some.
How does this affect Turkey's role regarding Syria, or its relations with Iran, the Moslem Brüderbund, and particularly Egypt? For the past four years, Erodgan's government had not do much militarily to fight the Syrian regime, but it aided millions of refugees and kept its borders open for fighters.
A core Turkish interest
Regardless of who the next Turkish president will be, Syria will be a core Turkish interest, and it is unlikely that the new government will alter its stance. We also expect Turkey to continue avoiding direct involvement in the war, especially amid the presence of Iranian forces and militias inside Syria. However,
facts are stubborn; statistics are more pliable...
it will continue to influence the Syrian opposition.
Ankara will maintain its alliance with Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face...
and Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates...
because it enhances its influence and strengthens its stance in the West. Turkey's importance in the Syrian war has increased as Syrian
Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneckal-Assad
Oppressor of the Syrians and the Lebs...
has weakened. The war will require Turkish involvement to confront the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling
Allaharound with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not
reallyMoslems....
of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will continue to demand the removal of the Assad regime or at least Assad himself.
I do not expect a change regarding relations with Iran, because Erdogan has maintained a good relationship with Tehran throughout his years in office. Another significant reason is that Iran's relations with the West are improving, and Turkey is a member of NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A cautionary tale of cost-benefit analysis....
.
What about the Brotherhood, which has found a comfortable haven in Istanbul especially after being exiled from Qatar? Erdogan has adopted the Brotherhood as his cause, putting him at odds with much of his party, mainly with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who resigned this week and who has repeatedly voiced his dissatisfaction with Erdogan's interference in Egyptian affairs.
The Brotherhood is expected to lose Turkish protection, as it has failed in Egypt and become a political burden on Turkey. AKP is no longer interested in looking after it. The Brotherhood failed in replacing their imprisoned leaders in Egypt, and has failed to mobilize the street, so their political weight will decrease.