[Real Clear Politics] Moscow says it's sticking to a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, it's piling up troops and weapons for something that doesn't look so peaceful.The war in Ukraine may have faded largely from international headlines, but Vladimir Putin's drip-drip invasion continues. In the last two weeks, forensic evidence, some of which has been reported by monitor organizations and senior Western diplomats, the rest corroborated by eyewitness photography and video, only confirms what the U.S. fears most: A summer offensive is inevitable.
On May 5, the Ukrainian government released new data which says that they have lost 28 towns to Russian-backed separatists since February 18. That was the day the strategic town of Debaltsevo, which guarded a key highway to separatist-controlled regions, slipped from Ukraine's control. The map of separatist territory is as alarming as it is illustrative, especially when it is combined with the daily reports of ceasefire violations and fighting coming out of both the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and Kiev.
On May 6, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko addressed the National Security and Defense Council and warned that Russia has 50,000 troops on the border and its proxies have more than 40,000 fighters inside the country. That's not only a combined 50% increase in possible invaders over July of last year, the month which proceeded the "Russian invasion" on the Ukrainian mainland. It's more than enough soldiers to invade and gobble up a significant amount of Ukrainian territory.