The daily downpours that filled North Texas lakes to the brim and beyond washed away the last pockets of drought across much of the Dallas area. "Exceptional drought" ‐ the most severe category ‐ has been wiped completely off the Texas map, according to the latest Drought Monitor.The last time that happened was in July 2012. But then, 87 percent of the state was "abnormally dry" or worse. This year, more than 64 percent of Texas shows no signs of drought.
This was two days ago, before we got 2" of rain last night.
The latest El NiĂąo diagnostic discussion from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, released Thursday, states there is a 90 percent chance that an El NiĂąo pattern will continue through the summer, and a better than 80 percent likelihood it will last through the rest of the year.
"That could lead to wetter-than-normal conditions for Texas this summer, because El NiĂąo's greatest impact is typically on our rainfall," Mace said. "But the other side of that is summer tends to be our dry season, so if you're adding a little more rainfall during a drier season, the impacts aren't as evident.
"But it does lead to cooler-than-normal temperatures," always a welcome change from the usual torrid Texas heat, he said.
And then there's the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, one of a number of oscillations around the globe that garnered scant mention before the drought of 2011, Mace said.
The PDO is in place, he said, and that often means wetter-than-normal weather for Texas. On the other hand, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation "is still in a bad place for Texas" because it tends to decrease the likelihood of tropical systems developing in the Gulf of Mexico. And while El NiĂąo might mean more rain moving from west to east across Texas, it also shears the tops off budding tropical systems.
This climate change stuff is complex!