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| Arabia |
| Yemen is sitting on a powder keg |
| 2015-01-22 |
| [ARABNEWS] Toppling the legitimate Yemeni government, which is supported by the UN Security Council, was expected ever since the rebels entered the capital, Sanaa, three months ago. The rebels who had already occupied Sanaa have now taken over power. They will dominate it despite local and international rejection; however, their situation won't stabilize without resorting to the first agreement. In my view the pirates of power are the Houthis and ousted President President-for-Life Ali Abdullah Saleh ... Saleh initially took power as a strongman of North Yemen in 1977, when disco was in flower, but he didn't invite Donna Summer to the inauguration and Blondie couldn't make it... . The Houthis are a religious group and a political militia in support of Iran. Their partner, Saleh, is a leader whose time in power has expired. What happened in Yemen is a repetition of the scenario of invading Sanaa last September by the Houthi ...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The Yemeni government has accused the Houthis of having ties to the Iranian government, which wouldn't suprise most of us. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is God is Great, Death to Americaâ¢, Death to Israel, a curse on the Jews... militias, supported by military and security leaderships who sympathize with the ousted president Saleh. No major confrontations happened because during the past 15 weeks, Sanaa was semi-occupied. They had left President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi besieged in his palace. Those staging the coup practically attacked the last of standing forts after they failed to convince the president of willingly handing them power. But the latest news is worrying even if there were no surprises. Regardless of how vague upcoming events will be, there are some expected possibilities. Saleh, the ousted president who rides the Houthi horse and uses the Houthis as a weapon and as a political front, will try to impose military and political leaderships affiliated with him to lead the transitional phase while he puts together a new political order that directly, or indirectly, brings him back to managing the state through forged electoral claims. The second possibility is that the Houthis, who aspire to bring back the imamate and subsequently appoint Abdul Malek Al-Houthi as an absolute leader, will try to dominate power until Saleh drags them into deadly wars against tribal and political groups, like he did in six previous wars. Whether Abdul Malek Al-Houthi declares himself imam or whether Saleh returns as president or someone else inherits the presidency, Yemen has entered a dark tunnel, which will lead to breaking up of the country's unity and to the separation of south Yemen. It will also push some northern areas and governorates to rebel. Some gangs will also form amidst this chaos in order to fight the Houthis over power. History is almost repeating itself after the fall of Imam Al-Badr bin Hamideddine. The rebels won't enjoy power and their control over Sanaa for long. Yemen mainly lives off foreign support and the country is based on tribal and regional balances, and it's difficult to achieve security without tribes' and local groups participation or approval. We don't know how the Houthis can possibly manage the government and honor their commitments toward citizens. Houthis are like Leb's Hezbollah who wants to control state institutions to serve its own interests but without having to be involved in the government's obligation to provide services to the people. The situation in Yemen is not less difficult than Leb's management. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #1 Anarchy is natural concomitant of tribalism---all western experts who say otherwise, are crooks & crackpots. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2015-01-22 05:04 |