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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Whither Central Asia as Afghan drawdown deadline arrives? |
| 2014-12-29 |
| The deadline for the drawdown of foreign forces from Afghanistan is here. Only about one-tenth of the once 140,000-strong foreign force will be in Afghanistan in 2015 and that number will decrease in years to follow. Williams said in recent years the security issues in some northern provinces such as Kunduz and Faryab has rivaled known hotspots in southern and eastern provinces such as Kandahar, Helmand, and Khost. He said the Taliban has been able to advance its cause there using ethnic kin as a vanguard. But Williams noted the Taliban has been successful in including members of other regional ethnic groups. Semple concurred, saying, "over the past few years...the non-Pashto-speaking Taliban of those areas, the Uzbeks, Tajiks and Turkmen, also have mobilized and they're now some of the Taliban fronts in the north." Semple added that in some northern provinces such as Kunduz, Takhar, and Faryab, Taliban operations are run "by commanders from the ethnic groups based in that area, not just the Pashtuns." The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is the region's best-known militant group, and it is an ally of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The IMU was in northern Afghanistan in late 2001 and suffered heavy losses in the U.S. bombing campaign. They fled into Pakistani tribal areas, but are spreading again into northern Afghanistan. Semple said that Afghanistan will remain at war through 2015, but the government "is not about to collapse imminently, the government will still be charge in Kabul and in the provinces but will have to fight." Williams added, "Don't forget that the Afghan army and security forces still have 344,000 troops and we look at history, the [Muhammad] Najibullah regime lasted for years after the withdrawal of Soviet support forces." Herbst suggested two scenarios, both of which could cause IMU militants to consider trying to cross back into Central Asia. He said a resurgent Taliban could facilitate the IMU reestablishing safe haven areas just south of Central Asia's border, from which it could launch raids. Herbst said that alternately, if the Ghani government "could assert control throughout most of the country...you might see the terrorists forced out and head back home." Herbst agreed the IMU fighters "don't represent an existential threat to the government of [Uzbek] President [Islam] Karimov," but he said, "They could, however, represent a tipping force in either Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan." |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #1 I expect the Afghans will go back under the yoke of the Taliban, or of something even worse. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2014-12-29 15:57 |