The huge military increase also likely reflects Iran’s determination to hold up its end in the conventional power struggle now unfolding across the Middle East. In Iraq and Syria, Iran is organizing resistance to ISIS and bolstering pro-Tehran governments. It looks as if the real powers in Iran believe for now that their interests are best served by a combination of talking in Geneva and fighting in the region, and that, with their regional opponents divided and the U.S. hesitant, they have a chance for real successes on the ground in Syria and Iraq.Iran may be much less worried about the failure of the nuclear talks than is the White House. Iran knows that the last thing President Obama wants to do is to get into a war with Tehran, and so it feels confident that it can stave off the prospect of an American attack even if the nuclear talks break down. But because the White House badly wants the talks to go on, the Iranians can spin out the negotiating process pretty much at will.