Zawahiri... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as
the real brains of the outfit.Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area. That is not a horn growing from the middle of his forehead, but a prayer bump, attesting to how devout he is...
's declaration that the global terrorist group has established its subcontinental branch is the realisation of the Islamist Death Eaters' long-standing dream. On the other hand, the formation of Al Qaeda in South Asia is also reflective of other developments taking place among Death Eater circles, particularly with regard to ongoing internal rifts and confrontations.
Islamist Death Eater organizations across the world are undergoing a transformation, which can cause changes in their chemistry and lead to the emergence of a new Death Eater character. Militants in Pakistain and Afghanistan are also passing through a similar phase, leading to new formations among them.
At present, Al Qaeda faces some critical challenges to its survival. The Islamic State (IS), previously the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), has exposed Al Qaeda's political and operational vulnerabilities which may hurt the latter's ideological appeal to its affiliates. The IS has come up with a new approach and model for building an Islamic state. The central and other chapters of Al Qaeda have not been able thus far to capture and hold a territory for the same purpose.
Their previous attempts at gaining territorial control only achieved partial and short-lived success as in 2011 and 2012 when Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and a coalition of North African turbans succeeded in capturing some territories for a short time.
The Al Qaeda strategy to support local Death Eater organizations for bringing about change has failed and in some cases proved counterproductive. Al Qaeda-affiliated local Death Eater groups are only able to create some turmoil in their respective regions. Even if a local group succeeds in capturing territory it finds it difficult to hold on to it. Also, it is relatively easy for counterfaceless myrmidons to challenge a local, isolated group both operationally and ideologically.
However,
a lie repeated often enough remains a lie...
the IS is inviting Al Qaeda affiliates to become part of a central command which can help them consolidate their gains in their respective regions.
Of course, this will make it more difficult for counterfaceless myrmidons to tackle murderous Moslems using conventional frameworks. For instance, if murderous Moslems launch a massive campaign on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistain border, it will become very difficult for the security forces of the two countries to counter them without evolving joint operational strategies. The emergence of the IS in the Syrian and Iraqi border regions can provide some insights.
It is clear that the IS call for allegiance is addressed to all Moslems and holds attraction and appeal for Islamist turbans and radical individuals and groups. It appears as if Al Qaeda is trying to respond by using its contacts and links with its affiliates and with groups inspired by its ideology. At the same time, it is trying to reach out to those regions and conflict zones where it can extend its influence by appealing to the 'oppressed' Moslem communities. South Asia, a region that is inhabited by 40pc of the global Moslem population, has attraction for both Al Qaeda and the IS.
Al Qaeda sees an opportunity in India-held Kashmire, where a separatist, religio-nationalist movement has been crushed and the religio-nationalist jihadist appeal of Death Eater groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba
...the
Army of the Pure,an Ahl-e-Hadith terror organization founded by Hafiz Saeed. LeT masquerades behind the Jamaat-ud-Dawa facade within Pakistain and periodically blows things up and kills people in India. Despite the fact that it is
banned, always an interesting concept in Pakistain, the organization remains an blatant tool and perhaps an arm of the ISI...
, Hizbul Mujahideen, and Jaish-e-Mohammad
...literally
Army of Mohammad, a Pak-based Deobandi terror group founded by Maulana Masood Azhar in 2000, after he split with the Harkat-ul-Mujaheddin. In 2002 the government of Pervez Musharraf
bannedthe group, which changed its name to Khaddam ul-Islam and continued doing what it had been doing before without missing a beat...
has lost its lustre. Al Qaeda is calling radical elements towards 'pure' jihad, which it believes cannot be confined within the boundaries of nationalism or of a state.
The IS, too, is emerging as an inspirational force for radical Moslem populations in India and India-held Kashmire. Though it remains to be seen what impact these two global jihadist groups have there, they will certainly add to the troubles of Moslem communities.
Interestingly, Zawahiri has renewed his pledge of allegiance to Mullah Omar
... a minor Pashtun commander in the war against the Soviets who made good as leader of the Taliban. As ruler of Afghanistan, he took the title
Leader of the Faithful. The imposition of Pashtunkhwa on the nation institutionalized ignorance and brutality in a country already notable for its own fair share of ignorance and brutality...
which indicates that Al Qaeda has challenged the caliphate of His Supreme Immensity, Caliph of the Faithful and Galactic Overlord, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
...formerly merely the head of ISIL and a veteran of the Bagram jailhouse. Looks like a new messiah to bajillions of Moslems, like just another dead-eyed mass murder to the rest of us...
. It indicates that Al Qaeda will firmly stand beside its old allies, which will not only increase the operational strength of the Afghan Taliban but also prevent the latter's erosion due to the IS effect.
The Jamaatul Ahrar
...a splinter group of the Pak Taliban led by Maulana Qasim Khurasani. The group has pledged allegiance to Mullah Omar and has agreed to follow his ideology, such as it is. It's probably the latest incarnation of the splinter group Ahrarul Hind since Khurasani used to head that group...
, newly established by some breakaway factions of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistain, is ideologically and politically more ambitious than the TTP and largely inspired by the successes of the IS. Even if it completely breaks its links with the TTP and Al Qaeda, the JA will remain ideologically and politically strong. As far as operational capabilities are concerned, the new group has a strong nexus with sectarian terrorist networks and factions of the Punjabi Taliban and the various Jundallah groups in mainland Pakistain.
The phenomenon of Jundallah is important in this perspective. Many groups are operating with the name of Jundallah in Pakistain, similar to Punjabi Taliban groups. While the Punjabi Taliban emerged from the Deobandi and Salafi Death Eater groups, Jundallah groups are breakaway factions of the Jamaat-e-Islami
...
The Islamic Society, founded in 1941 in Lahore by Maulana Sayyid Abul Ala Maududi, aka
The Great Apostosizer. The Jamaat opposed the independence of Bangladesh but has operated an
independentbranch there since 1975. It maintains close ties with international Mohammedan groups such as the Moslem Brotherhood. the Taliban, and al-Qaeda. The Jamaat's objectives are the establishment of a pure Islamic state, governed by Sharia law. It is distinguished by its xenophobia, and its opposition to Westernization, capitalism, socialism, secularism, and liberalist social mores...
(JI) and its subsidiary student and Death Eater wings.
With the exception of the Jundallah in Iranian Balochistan
...the Pak province bordering Kandahar and Uruzgun provinces in Afghanistan and Sistan Baluchistan in Iran. Its native Baloch propulation is being displaced by Pashtuns and Punjabis and they aren't happy about it...
, the remaining identically named groups, active in Bloody Karachi
...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous...
and Beautiful Downtown Peshawar
...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province), administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistan's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire.
valley, are of a similar nature. With their Islamist background, they are naturally inclined towards the IS, and like a few commanders of the Hizb-e-Islami -- a JI affiliate in Afghanistan -- apparently intend to announce their allegiance to the IS.
Seen from this perspective, the JA is likely to have a close operational alliance with Jundallah groups inside Pakistain. Conversely, the TTP's operational concentration will increase inside Afghanistan. It appears as if a new formation or alliance of Al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, TTP, the local Taliban led by Gul Bahadur and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan will emerge which will be challenged by an alliance of JA and its Pak affiliates, and breakaway factions of the Afghan Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami.
The Haqqanis have not yet indicated which side they will join. Maybe they believe they can play with and manoeuvre both pro- and anti-Pakistain groups. But it will not be possible for them to continue this approach for long because ideological alignments among turbans are becoming clearer and eventually they will have to decide which way to go.