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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Ebola: the WHO stats show the real story
2014-08-02
by anon1

I just went through the WHO stats here. They are now adding up the new cases and deaths every couple of days roughly.

One might expect a systematic and methodical collection of data from a World Health Organisation, especially one that doesn't actually ACT to prevent ebola spreading when it first breaks out.

But they can't even do that.

Firstly - the figures are only methodical for July and most of June. Halfway through June they start taking figures for different time periods in different countries (apples and oranges)

May is quite dodgy and April is so bad I gave up counting.

But for the figures I could consolidate they run thus:

DATE..........NEW CASES..........DEATHS

15-27 July......342..........................116
01-15 July......285..........................139
15-30 June........81............................41
01-15 June........84............................28

This is what "out of control" looks like. They can't track all the people the victims have infected. This is why the airlines are cancelling flights even though WHO still hasn't recommended travel bans and is lying about how contagious it is. You should all be ringing your local newspaper to ask if they can run a story on whether returning missionaries are going to be compulsory quarantined as there isn't enough convalescent blood available to treat the infected with life-saving transfusions.
Posted by:anon1

#9  Incubation is fairly slow for a virus, up to 3 weeks.

Which makes it particularly hard to contain.
Posted by: phil_b   2014-08-02 22:18  

#8  I wonder why only one case (the new case did die) showed up in Nigeria only lately (7-24 to 7-27) whereas the other countries have a fairly large number of new cases. What is it about Nigeria that ebola has been slow to take hold?
Posted by: JohnQC   2014-08-02 19:25  

#7  I'm not mathematician but extrapolate x4 per month equates to about 5 billion in a year in arithmetic progression. Please tell me I'm wrong.
Posted by: BrerRabbit   2014-08-02 17:10  

#6  Nicely done, anon1. Thank you.
Posted by: Steve White   2014-08-02 15:57  

#5  Its driving me crazy that they are bringing patient zero to the US, not really Ebola patient zero, but for the US he will be.
They are bringing the two here because they have an experimental treatment for them. Great! Frigging great! The CDC said there is little to no risk. Yup, little to nor risk, from the folks that sent the active plague FexEx to another facility. I feel safe. They say it is fluid transfer so its really really hard to get. Then they say the two will be brought over in a special aircraft, in a cocoon. Then transferred in a special vehicle to a state of the art infectious disease ward. All this effort for little to no threat. While in Africa the doctors are in MOP3 and go through full decontamination after, oh ya, and they still caught it! So I looked it up, not wiki but med sites. It is transferred by fluids. A good sneeze will get it there. All the typical, blood, semen etc... It is also in waste, urine and feces. It stays alive in these liquids for an extended period of time, not hours or days but weeks. This means everything will need to be incinerated. Urine could contaminate water supplies, Atlanta recycles and processes all waste. Just one of these little bugs is all it takes.
Then comes the gestation period, 21 days before they show symptoms. Within 21 days every infectious disease doctor will have visited, for their research papers. They will board planes, visit girlfriends, wives, family, etc... I'm not being hysterical here, just real. All of this risk so we can do what? Study them? This just is not right.
Posted by: 49 Pan   2014-08-02 15:29  

#4   how transmissible is this outside tropical Africa?

Never lick a gift bat in the mouth.
Posted by: SteveS   2014-08-02 14:25  

#3  looking at the numbers, transmissibility (the average number of people infected by a case) looks to be around 1.5 with the measures in place currently. Down from around 2 previously.

1.5 means it will exponentially spread without further measures, and when it exhausts the limited capacity of the current measures it goes back toward 2.

The question I am asking is, how transmissible is this outside tropical Africa?
Posted by: phil_b   2014-08-02 13:45  

#2  Saudi Arabia acted fast according to wikipedia here:

From 1 April, Saudi Arabia stopped issuing visas for the Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca to those from Guinea and Liberia.
Posted by: anon1   2014-08-02 12:49  

#1  Sorry, those WHO stats can be accessed here
Posted by: anon1   2014-08-02 12:34  

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