The Atlas V--always the less expensive of ULA's fleet (partly owing to the Russian engine sourcing), the most competitive in the commercial market, and the nearest peer to Space Exploration Technologies' (SpaceX) new Falcon family--is effectively over, an industry source says. This longtime player in the space industry preferred talking on background. The convergence of a Russian threat to cut off RD-180 supply, SpaceX's impending certification to compete with the Falcon 9v1.1 and the lawsuit filed by SpaceX April 28 claiming ULA's sole-source deal with the U.S. Air Force was anticompetitive has put so much pressure on the Atlas V that it is unlikely to survive, the source says.If Atlas V goes away, the industry source says, the U.S. could eventually be left with a SpaceX/Falcon and ULA/Delta IV fleet for assured access.
The problem is the latter's high cost, due in part to Boeing's decision to build the RS-68 LOx/hydrogen first stage during its development, and to a lower volume of launches than hoped. This would trigger a need for a new rocket and, thus, a new engine to fulfill the assured access policy--the very engine recently garnering such swift support.
The "Mitchell Commission," led by Air Force Maj. Gen. (ret.) Howard Mitchell, a longtime Air Force space insider who is now a vice president at the Aerospace Corp., is backing the idea of a new liquid oxygen/hydrocarbon engine. And so is Shelton. "I would love to see us produce an engine; our industrial base has kind of withered," Shelton said at the Space Symposium. "Personally, what I would like to see us pursue is hydrocarbon boost," Shelton says. "I don't think LOx/kerosene is the way to go. Certainly LOx/hydrogen is a thing of the past." LOx/hydrogen requires big tanks owing to its low density and cryogenics, yet it is highly energetic. Kerosene is more dense, like a liquid, but not as effective. Engineers are now exploring whether methane--with qualities between the two--can balance these trades. It can be located on the rocket adjacent to the LOx tanks and is expected to produce good thrust, but work remains to make the technology operational.
Shelton says a new engine project is apt to be only slightly more expensive than the $800 million it would cost to establish U.S. RD-180 production.