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Europe
Forgotten treaty which could drag the US and UK into WAR with Russia
2014-03-01
HT: AoS
Posted by:Uncle Phester

#20  Phil_b: they might as well while their agent is in the White House.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain   2014-03-01 19:33  

#19  Command Authority by Tom Clancy - best scenario. Obama's no Jack Ryan.
Posted by: Frank G   2014-03-01 18:57  

#18  It looks like Ukraine will resist militarily, which will probably split the Ukraine Armed Forces.

Civil war with 'fraternal support' from Russia.

The question I have is, will Russia stop at the Crimea?, which is almost an island, and could be supplied as such by sea.

But I think Russia will go for a land route, which means annexing a probably wide 400km slice of Eastern Ukraine.

Going to be an interesting week.
Posted by: phil_b   2014-03-01 18:34  

#17  Putin holds all the cards, from gas to Afghanistan.

It looks at the moment like Ukraine won't resist militarily, but if they do, this will get very ugly.

The only possible card the West holds is to persuade the Turks to close the Bosphorus to the Russian Navy, and while the Turks have no love for the Russians, I think it very unlikely the Turks would agree.
Posted by: phil_b   2014-03-01 17:52  

#16  Correct link. Sorry.
Posted by: Besoeker   2014-03-01 17:41  

#15  DNI's 2013 Threat Assessment. One para on page 25 relative to the Ukraine.

Link
Posted by: Besoeker   2014-03-01 17:37  

#14  @OS: we're gonna' need more lamp posts..
Posted by: Uncle Phester   2014-03-01 17:27  

#13  swksvoiff, your point 2 is what has me so angry. If a Cold War relic like me saw this coming a mile away, then where the hell have the intel people bee? Where is the press, who should be crowing about this being covered in their back issues a long time ago, and harshly holding the administration accountable for being asleep at the wheel?

Our unfree press needs to be broken up, demolished, and rebuilt from the bottom up. If anarchy comes, editors and compliant reporters should be hung from lamp posts, or else shot on sight as the enablers of those politicians who will have caused the downfall.
Posted by: OldSpook   2014-03-01 17:14  

#12  Russia could invade Alaska and the only impact to Obama would be a delayed tee time. Nothing to see hear and I suspect a main stream media to stop showing any Ukraine footage.
Posted by: Airandee   2014-03-01 17:09  

#11  But let's just say Obama has recovered from Happy Hour, he has a Bloody Mary and a targets list and he's ready to show he an ass kickin cock knocker, that the reason he wears mom jeans is that the hotties are in his pants so often his has shredded. I think he runs into a couple problems.

1. His base is kinda big fans of Mother Russia. I would love to see a split between the Loyalists and the Communists.

2. Totally unprepared. He has had this issue so successfully ignored that the media is sporting regional maps with f'n Czechoslovakia intact. People went to sleep glowing that President Peace Prize was learning the samba and playing footsie with the boys it was a bit shocking to turn on the TV and see Tomahawks streaking into Libya. Actually set a case before an action for Syria and couldn't pull that one off, so now he would be able to convince the US public to take the Bear head-on? Doubtful.

3. So a week after big publicity about gutting the military, is he going to order a counter-attack against Russia at Russia's doorstep?
Posted by: swksvolFF   2014-03-01 16:55  

#10  Thats not a defense treaty, that's a photo op.
Posted by: swksvolFF   2014-03-01 15:42  

#9  ..oops, maybe not - the agreement requires :

4.The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council (Home of the Strongly Worded Letter TM) action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.
...
6.The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

<LINK>
Posted by: Uncle Phester   2014-03-01 12:35  

#8  Even if it is a legally binding treaty, he could simply issue an EO and delay its implimentation until 2017.

Avoiding an embarassing conflict and nullifying a defense treaty. I believe in the White House that would be called a two-fer.

Personally, I would love to be running for congress and throw the pic of Clinton signing the treaty.
Posted by: swksvolFF   2014-03-01 10:19  

#7  Don't recall the Senate ratifying said 'treaty'. Of course if dear leader doesn't feel compelled to follow the Constitution, why would he feel compelled by any 'treaty'.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2014-03-01 09:32  

#6  Spereting, there's only one Joseph Mendiola!
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2014-03-01 08:06  

#5  The 1868 Treaty of Fort Laramie has been utterly forgotten and rightly so. The US gov't violated it wholesale by 1877, and the US Supreme Court by 1980 did hold that the treaty had been violated, yet did not order a restoration of the terms, only assessed a monetary settlement, which the other party - the Indians - refused, wanting their land BACK.
Let this Ukrainian defense treaty be handled the exact same way. Give the Ukrainians a few $million and tell them to get lost. It'll be all nice & legal.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418    2014-03-01 08:06  

#4   Imagine a few hundred or thousand US soldiers being "detained" in a captured Romanian airfield ?

Yeah?

The American people wouldn't DO a damn thing. Ask Bruce and Dwayne. Who would follow the US who was a US citizen anyplace except to watch the democrats twerking for votes by passing out free stuff?

The US is incapable of fighting a real enemy who believes in something...because clue you..WHAT does the US believe in anymore? What is worth fighting for in the US...free stuff and no jobs and selling your wife's engagement ring to keep the heat turned on in the trailer while you look for a job that isn't there ?

Obamacare and your cancellation letter ? What American VALUES are worth more than a used Condom ? Anybody been to Church lately? Be sure and lock your doors and get tested for AIDS, Hero.
Posted by: Spereting Tingle4064   2014-03-01 06:42  

#3  Relax. EUropeans are just bullies, and even Obumba is not that crazy.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2014-03-01 02:17  

#2  We'd better hope and pray the Russians don't parachute into Mihail Kogalniceanu airbase. That's what we better pray for. Imagine a few hundred or thousand US soldiers being "detained" in a captured Romanian airfield ?

This thing could go 'kak city' overnight.
Posted by: Besoeker   2014-03-01 01:34  

#1  WW1anyone?
Posted by: OldSpook   2014-03-01 01:27  

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