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Europe
New Ukraine Leader Says Russia Must Respect Country's 'European Choice'
2014-02-24
[An Nahar] Ukraine's new interim president said on Sunday that he was open to dialogue with Russia as long as Moscow respected his country's decision to seek closer ties with the European Union
...the successor to the Holy Roman Empire, only without the Hapsburgs and the nifty uniforms and the dancing...

"We are ready for a dialogue with Russia... that takes into account Ukraine's European choice, which I hope will be confirmed in (presidential) elections" set for May 25, Oleksandr Turchynov said in a television address.
Given that the Sochi Olympics have ended, I give Vlad about three days to make his move, and the Ukrainians won't like it when he does...
A new era opened in Ukraine Sunday as parliament gave itself three days to form a new government after impeaching a defiant President Viktor Yanukovych and calling early elections following a week of carnage.

Yanukovych's whereabouts remained a mystery amid claims he tried and failed to escape the country and was hiding out in the east, his historic power base, where localized, minor festivities erupted overnight.

But his rule appeared all but finished as journalists combed through his abandoned presidential residence looking for incriminating documents and the opposition-controlled parliament set a Tuesday deadline for the formation of a new government and appointed its own new speaker, Oleksandr Turchynov, as interim president.

On Kiev's Independence Square, where many people were killed this week, life creaked back to normal as onlookers filed through giant, makeshift barricades set up to keep security forces at bay after anti-government protests erupted in November.
Posted by:Fred

#9  According to Youtube video's being spread, Russia is already in the Ukraine. And there are reports that Phone service in the Crimea is down. So go figure, it took less than a day for Russia to roll in.
Posted by: Charles   2014-02-24 22:03  

#8  ..a few pleasant moments: <LINK>
Posted by: Uncle Phester   2014-02-24 19:59  

#7  Strategy wise I would think Russia would drive for the areas of high Russian ethnic density and hold there.

Isn't that what they did in Georgia?
Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305   2014-02-24 17:44  

#6  Reminds me of a book I read about the first battle of Grozny in which Soviet draftee tankers without infantry support were slaughtered by Chechyans with swords.

Training is everything. I don't know if the Ukrainians have it or not but they at least have home field defensive advantage and minimal logistics.

Strategy wise I would think Russia would drive for the areas of high Russian ethnic density and hold there. Support with naval and paratroopers as best as possible and hope the shock of tanks and planes keeps the Ukranians cowed. Then negotiate.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2014-02-24 15:47  

#5  Wanna lay a little bet on it, P2K?
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2014-02-24 14:56  

#4  As OS points out, its one thing to go in one province on your immediate border and another to project a force of adequate size several hundred miles and sustain it beyond a couple of days.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2014-02-24 14:14  

#3  P2K, you asked any Georgians about the subject?*

*Look at Russian history---when did they have an effective army? Size have efficiency all of it's own.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2014-02-24 14:10  

#2  This would be the largest intervention since Afghanistan, is the Russian army capable and ready for this?

Given the long running stick on Strategy Page about corruption in the Red Russian army and the inability to get real reform moving, any showing along those lines that reveals remarkable incompetence, ineffectiveness, and failure will drop the fear factor of the Bear significantly. Better to have a 'fleet in being' than committing it and finding out that it wasn't that good to begin with.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2014-02-24 13:30  

#1  There is the possibility af some hard fighting if Vlad rolls too far west. Ukrainian units there are not inert, and its a lot farther away than were the areas of Georgia and Chechnya were. Plus the police and local armories have gone over to the people in increasing numbers the further west one goes. Then there are the logistical issues, and the issues of scale - Ukraine is larger and far more populated than the previous intervention targets. This would be the largest intervention since Afghanistan, is the Russian army capable and ready for this? And how would the do in the face of hundreds of thousands, like in Kiev? Firing into them would disperse them, but would also trigger far wider and far more intense resistance and attacks on the Russians, who would be seen as invaders.

I don't see success for the Russians unless the restrict their intervention to the closer, more Russian friendly areas in the east.
Posted by: OldSpook   2014-02-24 10:34  

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