In a roundtable discussion last Saturday, bigwigs of Bangladesh's civil society called for stopping the polls that are being held today, having reached the consensus that it is going to be nothing more than a farcical or "arranged" event. Coming only 8 days before the elections, it is probably too little too late to have the desired effect, but the Awami League's unmoved stance, aggressive rhetoric, and a series of recent actions have made one thing clear: the democratic right of the people to vote in a free and fair election was not guaranteed under this government.
As the old saying goes: "Hindsight is a beautiful thing," and it is hindsight that gives us a picture of what could have happened if BNP had given up its stance, and participated in the polls.
Opinion polls published in Prothom Alo, a leading Bangla newspaper showed BNP, with 50% popular support, leading the Awami League (at 37%), by a margin of 13 percentage points in September this year. Another poll published later in the Daily Star showed BNP to be leading Awami League by an even bigger margin of 27 percentage points (BNP-55%, AL-28%).
Even though more recent polls, such as the one published by Dhaka tribune on Friday, suggest that the margin is closing, statistics like this and five city corporation election victories for BNP this year would give anyone the impression that BNP would be runaway winners in a free and fair election.
So, by deciding to boycott them, BNP had more to lose than any other party. But why would they do it? The answer, perhaps, is that unlike opinion polls, elections require an unbiased administration to conduct it, and Awami League never even got close to creating one.
At the outset, let us look at the Election Commission itself. At different points during the present government's tenure, the Election Commission scrapped the provision of the No Vote (which gave the voter the option to reject all candidates), the provision requiring membership of a party for 3 years (which was meant to prevent buying and selling of party nominations), and most shockingly, the provision giving the power to the EC to cancel a candidate's candidature for violation of election laws.
The EC somehow allowed registration for Bangladesh Nationalist Front (BNF), a party clearly formed to create confusion among voters about BNP's participation in the polls.
The EC had earlier introduced extremely stringent rules for the participation of independent candidates in the elections (e.g. requiring them to obtain signatures with personal details from 1% of the total voter number), and using technicalities, disqualified a huge number of rebellious independent candidates from the Awami League, which, in turn, led to the colossal figure of 153 uncontested seats.
A disqualified independent candidate, whom I represented as a lawyer, was disqualified by the EC on the simple ground that the list of signatures he had collected had some missing serial numbers, a technicality that could have been easily corrected by the returning officer himself. Even an RPO provision and a High Court directive that technical mistakes should be remedied by the Returning Officer could not save my client.
The changes in the rules made by the EC have, somehow or the other, benefitted the Awami League. Imagine the embarrassing situation when the uncontested Awami League candidate could have been defeated by a No Vote, or where Awami League's rebel candidates could have ridden the anti-government sentiment, and then as independent candidates could have formed a majority in parliament.
Despite facing widespread criticism, the EC's role in allowing registration to BNF, a party named similar to BNP, and it scrapping its own power in relation to dealing with violation of election laws have only empowered the government.
However,
some people are alive only because it's illegal to kill them...
the EC perhaps lost the last straw of its credibility when it refused to allow the withdrawal of nomination by the Jatiya Party
...aka Jatiya Front; a political party established by Bangladictator Lieutenant General Hussain Muhammad Ershad in 1986 to lend a veneer of respectability to his rule. Since nobody was amused he was forced to resign by popular demand in 1990. The party remains in existence with about a dozen seats in Bangla's parliament...
Chairman HM Ershad despite his public statement that he did not want to participate in elections. Again, EC used a minor technicality that he was not present at the EC with his withdrawal application to keep him in the elections as per Awami League's wishes.
With a less than credible EC in place, one would have hoped for a strong-willed law enforcement and justice system to back up the election process. However,
some people are alive only because it's illegal to kill them...
from the experience of the present, that is not to be seen. At the time of writing, 16 key members from the senior ranks of the BNP are behind bars on "political" grounds. The lower judiciary, has shown unprecedented subservience by refusing bail for all of them despite the lack of any specific allegations against them. A High Court directive from 2003 makes remand illegal without specific evidence of involvement in an offence, but no heed of that has been taken by the magistrates on duty.
One breaking news after another has shown nearly every person making a press-statement on behalf of BNP, either being picked up by the Detective Branch, or having a case slapped on them -- driving them underground fearing arrest. The pattern is uncannily similar -- person X briefs journalists on BNP's position, and moments later person X is picked up and taken to the DB office.
Nearly all big shots have been picked up on the basis of vague "suspicions" and then shown locked away
Please don't kill me!
in enough cases to put them behind bars till the elections on Januray 5.
The law enforcement authorities' subservience to Awami League's interests has been no less than naked the last few days. It started with the Dhaka Metropolitan Police refusing permission for BNP's March for Democracy, its most peaceful sounding demonstration so far. It was followed by a blockade by the law enforcers of all road, rail, and waterways to prevent party supporters from coming to Dhaka to join. Simultaneously came the arrests of big shots from Dhaka and mass arrests of grassroot-level BNP organisers.
Three-term PM of Bangla, widow of deceased dictator Ziaur Rahman, head of the Bangla Nationalist Party, an apparent magnet for corruption ...
's protocol was withdrawn in an unprecedented violation of her legal right as the leader of the opposition.
Finally, when she was prevented from leaving her house by 8 platoons of coppers and 5 sand-laden trucks requisitioned by the police to guard her gate, one point was made clear -- if the Awami League wants to suppress the BNP, the police will execute their will with mighty force.
In the hypothetical situation, where the BNP has participated in polls under the AL government, there would be no guarantee that BNP's top brass would not be somehow disqualified by the EC from participating in elections, or that they would not be picked up one-by-one by the Detective Branch ahead of the elections. As things appear now, there would be no guarantee that the grassroots of BNP, who are its election organisers, would not be pushed underground with mass arrests and false cases and no guarantee that Khaleda Zia's election campaign would not be banned by the police on "security grounds," or blocked by sand-laden trucks. AL's recent actions do not, at all, paint a happy picture of participatory democracy needed for a free and fair election.
The civil society has called for stopping the farcical elections of January 5, and, conscious citizens have outrightly condemned the undemocratic and illegal heavy-handedness of the government preventing BNP's March for Democracy, but to no avail. It only goes to show that under
...Bangla dynastic politician and current Prime Minister of Bangladesh. She has been the President of the Bangla Awami League since the Lower Paleolithic. She is the eldest of five children of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangla. Her party defeated the BNP-led Four-Party Alliance in the 2008 parliamentary elections. She has once before held the office, from 1996 to 2001, when she was defeated in a landslide. She and the head of the BNP, Khaleda Zia show such blind animosity toward each other that they are known as the Battling Begums..
's government, there is not much space for voices against her regime.
As we stand, the BNP is in a position that no democratic political party wants to be in. All of its big shots are either behind bars or in hiding to avoid arbitrary arrest. Its Chairperson is under effective house-arrest. Most of its activists are arrested or in fear of arrest.
That being said, one thing that BNP must be proud of is of having made the right decision about the January 5 elections. It is the strongest message against an election that is flawed, and only meant to give a particular regime legitimacy that it does not deserve. If Awami League does, in the end, go ahead with the elections, not only will it be a colossal waste of public money, democracy will go from the frying pan to the fire.