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| China-Japan-Koreas | |
| Don't pencil in that war with China for 2014 | |
| 2014-01-02 | |
| At the end of 2011, in an article on this site titled "Maybe that war with China isn't so far off after all", I drew that gloomy conclusion because the United States, thanks to the justifications, excuses, and pretexts surrounding its desire to "pivot to Asia", had created the doctrinal and public relations justification and institutional incentives for military hostilities with the PRC. The slowly developing pivot has certainly created problems for the People's Republic in 2013, energizing its antagonists, marginalizing its supporters, and turning China's search for advantage in its East Asian environment into a grinding, costly slog, marked by incessant friction between Japan and China, the escalating defiance of the Philippines, and the alarming emergence of India as Japan's explicit security partner. Despite talk of a "new model" of US-China relations, the new regime of Xi Jinping has not hit many of the conciliatory marks that the United States pointedly set for it (and, in the case of Syria, its resistance to the Obama administration's policies have been rather clearly vindicated). In East Asia, China continues to claim objectionable security prerogatives, particularly in its maritime zone. Western elite opinion is set against the country as an assertive, uncooperative, and disturbing force - witness the media uproar against the PRC for failing to supply the level of typhoon aid to the Philippines that might validate China's legitimacy as a benign regional power, at least in the eyes of the West - and the outlook for 2014 is more complaints and more coercion. Increasingly, this attitude manifests itself as the assertion in the Western public sphere that US relations with the PRC are veering from the model of peaceful competition to an existential good versus evil cage match. This is demonstrably not the opinion in PRC pundit-land, nor does it seem to be the case when considering the actual application of US pivot policy. In fact, a closer reading of the events of 2013 imply that there are more pressing and productive priorities for the US in Asia than teeing up World War III.
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| Posted by:Pappy |
| #11 I fear the Obama administration will try to be "sophisticated" and "balanced", and as a result will give Japan or the Philippines the message they'll stand behind them and China the message they'll stay out of any "territorial disputes". Rather like Gillespie did with Saddam. The administration will be patting themselves on the backs on their "triangulation for peace" even after the shooting starts and our allies are screaming for help. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2014-01-02 23:01 |
| #10 De latest ... * TELEGRAPH.UK > JAPAN RISKS THREAT TO GLOBAL PEACE BY REKINDLING MILITARISTIC SPIRIT OF SECOND WORLD WAR, SENIOR CHINESE OFFICIAL WARNS. Related to yesterday's Artics. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2014-01-02 22:51 |
| #9 "Don't pencil in that war with China for 2014" Maybe not China nor 2014. Or the US vs. But it's hard to see how the World can emerge from this malaise without a major war effort. So many players at bat. Vacuums need to be filled. God bless. More hostilities are on horizon; it seems to me unprecedented that they would not be. |
| Posted by: mossomo 2014-01-02 21:55 |
| #8 This is a soapbox for me and one reason I pay attention. I can't forget, AttorneyGeneral Reno says she has not seen any evidence of China trying to influence the Clinton administration to export military technology. In November 1993, on the eve of the first Sino/American summit since the Tienneman square massacre, NSA Director Adm. McConnell approved approved China's long standing request to buy a super high technology computer, supposedly for exclusively non military use. Since then the PRC has taken possession of at least 46 super computers. |
| Posted by: mossomo 2014-01-02 21:29 |
| #7 What would a U.S.-China war look like? |
| Posted by: newc 2014-01-02 20:13 |
| #6 Japan islands would be a tough fight for little terrain. Same with the Phills. I expect a move for China to begin stabilization of NK to the north by exporting them as muscle like the Caribs do with Jamaicans and 'trading partner' occupation of Indo/Mala/Suma/Java to the south to alleviate some of the poverty as well as export their muslims. Also look for a non-intervention treaty with AU that includes help with constraining the AU north coast illegal immigration problem. This gives them a two hemisphere barrier to intervention in SE/C/SW Asia influence from the Pacific. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2014-01-02 16:04 |
| #5 an existential good versus evil cage match Worked with the Soviets. There again, though, it requires a president and congress critters who have some balls. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2014-01-02 12:55 |
| #4 The-US-can't-go-to-War-anymore-becuz-we-can't afford-it Well, we could start by unilaterally cancelling our indebtedness to China. Then we could stop letting them sell their plastic crap in our country. I know. I know. That would take a president and congress critters who have some balls. But that would be a serious shot across China's bow. As for the Japanese, my guess is Abe's call to revamp it's pacifist, post-WWII constitution is a response to perceived American weakness. Japs will fold? I wouldn't bet on it. I think Abe's recent visit to Yasukuni was a deliberate thumbing of his nose in the direction of China. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2014-01-02 12:49 |
| #3 No war, Japs will fold. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2014-01-02 04:41 |
| #2 War won't jump off until 2015 at the earliest and likely mainly be Japan vs PRC. Whether the US can or will get involved is still uncertain. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2014-01-02 00:56 |
| #1 I disagree - the situation in NE or East Asia vee China comntinues to move in the direction of continuing escalation + possible military China-led, China-centric military conflict(s), of which the China-Japan crisis is the most high-profile but in reality is only one of several that could easily occur. Unfortunately for the Artic's author, there is nothing he has described that was also not present during China's past military incidents agz its neigbors - IT WHAT MAKES CHINA'S NEHAVIOR SO SHOCKING ONCE THE SHOOTING = COMBAT BEGINS. Iff Maha-Rushian histoire' is any measure, Bammer Washington isn't going to realize China's game until AFTER the shooting begins + China prevails, NOT BEFORE. The US-Allies + UNO were times caught off-guard by China's military response in the past, + IMO is more likely than not to be so again. Again, CHINA wants what the Superpower USA, USSR, UK, + other preceding Great Powers had + that is OVERSEAS MILBASES FOR THE PROJECTION, DEFENSE OF TRADE + MILPOL POWER. For the author to be correct, one must believe that China can just put aside or amend its self- perceived or desired "Manifest Destiny", + allow Japan, etal, to take its place + rise to become the new"post-US" World #1 in lieu of China, or in alternate a new Global Polity more potent or influential than China in world affairs. THAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE. * FYI CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [Japan Times] ABE SAYS ITS TIME TO REVAMP [Japan's] PACIFIST CONSTITUTION, by 2020. ARTIC > JAPAN PM ABE = supports the "complete restoration" of Japan's status as a major player or contributor to world affairs. VERSUS * BIGNEWSNETWORK > [The Province] JAPAN RISKS WORLD PEACE AGAIN, CLAIMS CHINA. China will NOT Japan to rewrite history nor restore its status as a AGGRESSIVE WORLD MILITARY POWER * RELATED SAME > [Global Times] CHINA CAN [unilaterally?] UPHOLD POSTWAR VERDICT ON JAPAN. * SAME > [West Australian = AFP] CHINA MULLS REVAMPING MILITARY REGIONS [7 ea. PLA MRS into 5]: JAPAN REPORT [Yomiuri Shimbun], to improve its military response or capabilities in case of military crisis agz Japan. * PRAVDA > CELESTIAL EMPIRE [China] WILL NOT LET THE US BACK IN ASIA. * DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > JAPAN SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE PLA: EXPERT [Buntan Karo]. ARTIC > PERT KARO = believes Japan + SDF can win agz China + PLA iff Sino-Japan mil conflict confinced or isolated to only the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands + maybe Okinawa proper - PROB OF JAPAN VICTORY IS REDUCED IFF COMBAT SPREADS TO REST OF RYUKYU/OKINAWA RCHIPELAGO + BEYOND. IOW, SCOPE = IT COULD BE HIGHLY ADVANTAGIOUS FOR CHINA + PLA TO NOT LIMIT ANY COMBAT TO ONLY THE DISPUTED ISLANDS OR ARCHIPELAGO - THE LARGER THE THEATER(S) OF [Regional]CONFLICT THE GREATER THE PROB OF ULTIMATE/FINAL CHINESE VICTORY??? And that's NOT counting The-US-can't-go-to-War-anymore-becuz-we-can't afford-it, alleged Marxist-Anarchist-Globalist POTUS Obama + aligned pro-OWG-NWO, pro-"Co-Superpower", anti-US Globalists. ANTI-AMERICAN AMERIKAN GLOBALISTS ARE IN CHARGE OF THE US MIL RESPONSE ANYWHERE + EVERYWHERE, ETC. NOT AMERICANS. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2014-01-02 00:53 |