The ouster and execution of North Korean leader The picture is going to become clearer over the following weeks and months, but already it is clear that the regime is far less monolithic than some observers believed based on state propaganda alone. Meanwhile, feverish speculation continues among North Korea watchers here trying to make sense of the mess.
◆ Instability
Ryu Dong-ryeol of the Police Science Institute said
| So he was either confident or threatened. Boy howdy what would we do without experts to noodle this out... |
Yun Duk-min, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, told a seminar in the National Assembly on Thursday that he doubts about the stability of the Kim regime given the rapid changes that have taken place recently. This could weaken Kim's own power base and lead to internal chaos, Yun warned.
Experts believe that it usually takes about two years to consolidate power again after a purge, so it will not be until 2015 to see whether Kim has succeeded.
◆ Uncertainties
The Workers Party Politburo said Jang had been warned several times and steps were taken to rein in his ambitions, but he did not acquiesce. Jang may have been guilty of hubris, with followers worshipping him personally or prioritizing Jang's orders over than Kim's.
But other experts say Jang may have been targeted for elimination a year ago as he was relieved of his duty as head of the administrative department of the Workers Party.
If Jang directly challenged Kim's rule, there is a strong chance that the reign of terror will intensify in North Korea. The overseas businesses Jang controlled could also be scaled back, which would slow the pace of timid economic reforms.
Pyongyang's relations with Beijing are also expected to be impacted because Jang had many connections in China.
◆ The Kim Family's Role
There are reports that Kim Jong-un's older brother
Japanese and other foreign media say Kim Kyong-hui had an active role in the ouster of her husband, while others believe she quietly condoned it. If the Kim dynasty closed rank to remove Jang, the regime could have gained a measure of short-term stability.
◆ Military Role
One aim of Jang's ouster may have been for military Politburo chief Choe Ryong-hae to regain control over the money-making operations Jang had monopolized. That would mean that the powerful military is once again in the ascendancy, and with it all the reactionary belligerence that caused the international community such headaches during the reign of Kim Jong-il.
But some pundits think Jang's ouster was a matter for the party leadership and a corps of soldiers protecting the North Korean leader. Ryu at the Police Science Institute said, "Even Choe may see his power threatened in a while."