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China-Japan-Koreas
China-Japan rearmament is Keynesian stimulus, if it doesn't go horribly wrong
2013-11-26
From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
I don't wish to become entangled in debate over whether other states impose such ADIZ identification zones beyond their territorial waters, as asserted by Beijing. It is political infantilism to see and judge such disputes through a moral prism, as if our Hobbesian world conforms to codes of right and wrong. What we are dealing with is a great power collision of epochal proportions.

The Asian arms race is young, but clearly under way already. China has launched its first stealth drone, known as Sharp Sword. It developing indigenous aircraft carriers. Its “Two-Ocean-Strategy” implies a fleet of five or six carrier battle groups.

Japan is already rearming. It is building a de facto marine force. It has launched its largest warship since WW2, an 800-foot long DDH-class helicopter carrier, an aircraft carrier in all but name. Tokyo is developing its own version of the Pentagon's Advanced Research Projects Agency. Spending on warships and aircraft will jump by 23pc this year.

When I visited the spanking new buildings of the Japanese defence ministry in Tokyo in March, it already seemed like another world from the run-down digs of the old Self-Defence Force that I had visited six years earlier.

You could feel the emergence of a new military power, pacifist still in name only. The message that came through loud and clear from talking to officials is that Japan is ready for a fight if necessary, and is convinced that it can sink or shoot down any force sent by China into Japan's waters and airspace – whether to close in on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, or to ratchet up pressure against Okinawa.

I was shown detailed maps tracing movements of Chinese DDG warships and Yuan-class submarines that left me deeply alarmed over where this is going. Japanese officials said Chinese naval officers on patrol were not responding to normal signals.

"What we don't know is whether Chinese officers follow any international code of conduct? Do they understand what is banned and not banned? Does the Communist Party control their own military?" said one defence planner.

"Two thousand years ago under the Han Dynasty, the emperor put his right hand on the wheel of his chariot and told his general that everything inside the borders was the domain of the emperor, and everything outside was left to the commander. That has plagued China throughout its history, and it is the delicate issue we now face," he said.

There is no red telephone between Tokyo and Beijing to defuse a crisis if it erupts, nothing comparable to the Washington-Moscow "hotline" during the Cold War.

While the US and China were able to calm the waters after an American military jet collided with a Chinese fighter in 2002 – killing the Chinese pilot – it is unlikely that any such mishap between China and Japan could be contained at this stage.
Posted by:KBK

#3  Lots of bad blood between the Chinks & Japs left over from WWII. I can understand the Chinese wanting vengeance. If they plan on getting it, things will have to jump off before the Japanese can build up. Wouldn't want a repeat of last time.

I further suspect the Chinese have a whole list of historical slights and grievances they are looking to correct. SCS and Japan are just the first innings of a long game.
Posted by: SteveS   2013-11-26 22:41  

#2  We saw it in the SCS agz PHIL + Vietnam - China kept putting out PCorrect, pro-Diplomacy/
Compromise/Peace feelers ... ... and then one day just suddenly opened fired + killed everyone, anyone widin their weapons range, even those whom had surrendered properly.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2013-11-26 22:10  

#1  Yuuupp.

FYI LATE 1970's ADAGE = IFF A US-SOVIET NUKE WAR EVAR! BREAKS OUT, GRAB THE FIRST CHICK YOU SEE + RUN, RUN TO THE HILLS".

Anyhoo ...

* CHINA DAILY FORUM > CHINA'S BEEF WID JAPAN IS ALSO A WARNING TO THE USA | KILLER APPS.

KILLER'S Bonnie Glaser = HHHHMMMM, HHHHMMMM, any relation to underclassman Virginia Glaser from St. Francis school, Yona, Guam???

just askin'.

* SAME > OBAMA HECKLED IN CHINATOWN.

* BIG NEWS NETWORK > [Market Watch] CHINA SILENT AFTER US AIR INCURSION REPORT.

Have bad vibes about this.

Historically, Imperial + Kai-Shek + Commie China likes to go tit-for-tat, IFF NOT AN OUTRIGHT MILITARY RESPONSE THEN SOMETHING SUBTLE-BUT-VIOLENT/COSTLY ["soft power"].

[NORTH KOREA-VS-USN-CVN-USS-GEORGE-WASHINGTON here].

China-ordered, North Korea-launched/fired.

To include Islamic-Jihadist-style "Death by a Thousand Cuts/Wounds".

Lest we fergit, many in post-911, "post-US", "Mahanist" China's Political, Military inner circles are calling for Beijing Govt. to end or minimize traditional "soft power" approaches in favor of "hard" or Military-led approaches.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2013-11-26 22:04  

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