There is little logic in the Netanyahu government's public assurances that the Syrian ruler Bashar Assad would not risk a major showdown with Israel for fear of an IDF response powerful enough to overthrow his regime. This argument fails to take into account the calculus in Washington: President Barack Obama would not countenance, at least in the initial stage, an Israeli military strike on a scale greater than the limited operation he is contemplating for his own armed forces in the wake of the Syrian government's chemical weapons attack on Damascus last Wednesday, Aug. 21. Israel would therefore not be allowed to endanger Assad's rule.
| Israel doesn't want to endanger Assad's rule, fully realizing as they do what would replace him. |
According to military sources, Israeli strategists prefer to believe that Syria will choose Jordan for a conventional missile strike in reprisal for a US attack - rather than go for Israel.
This assumption was refuted by the words of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem Tuesday, Aug. 27, at a press conference he held in response to US allegations of his government's responsibility for using chemical weapons in East Damascus.
Accusing the US Secretary of State John Kerry of telling lies and fabricating evidence against his government, Moallem insisted it had not used chemical weapons or delayed permission for the UN team to launch its investigation under guaranteed security in government-controlled sites. That team only arrived Saturday, Aug. 23, and was not ready for its mission before Monday, Moallem insisted.
| Possibly all true. It could have been Al Qaeda creating an incident, whether deliberately or accidentally -- there have been rumblings that they made off with contents of captured warehouses for quite some time. |
| Yeah, yeah. It's always those damned juices. |
When Moallem said Tuesday that Syria would defend itself in the case of a US strike "using all available means," he felt safe in including Syrian allies in this category.
Those allies are evidently resolved not to stand by idly if Syria is attacked.
| Much more likely that Hizb'allah will attack Americans or Israelis out in the great big world than that Assad will trigger open war with Israel -- they're already out there and ready to rock. |
| Cargo Cult diplomacy. |
Jerusalem as well as Washington realizes how widely the fallout may spread, but Israeli leaders are keeping this prospect under their hats to avoid public panic.
| Most everyone in Israel has figured it out, which is why there's a run on gas masks over there, and construction on the various security fences continues apace. |