| What other expectations could you possibly have? |
The US secretary of state is expected to make this journey many times in the coming months of grinding shuttle diplomacy between the two sides of the 65-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He will need stamina, patience, resourcefulness, determination; a strong sense of history, a clear grasp of the present, and a vision of the future; plus an instinct for when to tread delicately and when to diplomatically bang heads.
Kerry is in the Holy Land this week, for the third time in less than a month, as part of a drive by the second-term Obama administration to get the so-called peace process back on track after the miscalculations and setbacks of Barack Obama's first term. Amid carefully lowered expectations, Kerry will strive to bridge the gaps between the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, that have caused a two-and-a-half-year impasse. But a long history of failed efforts and aborted talks cannot be far from his mind.
Obama's charm offensive on Israel last month went down well. During his three-day visit he showed warmth towards "my friend Bibi", repeatedly using Netanyahu's nickname, in contrast to earlier chilly encounters, and paid tribute to the history and achievements of the Jewish state.
| And lost ground with everyone, especially the Israelis... |
The president was received with markedly less warmth in Ramallah, where the Palestinians feel betrayed by the past four years and deeply cynical about the future.
| The Paleos really, really know betrayal. They're specialists at it so they recognize an expert when they see one... |
Obama left the Holy Land with his stock higher than ever among Israelis,
| ...no, but let him think that for now... |
Kerry's efforts to bring the two sides together will focus initially on measures to instil confidence in their stated commitment to negotiations.
Israel may be asked to release more than 120 Palestinian political prisoners who have been in jail since before the 1993 Oslo accords. The Palestinians would also like a settlement construction freeze. Israel's formal position is that this is a non-starter, but it may avoid announcing new building projects in the next two or three months in an unstated gesture.
The Palestinians have said they will refrain from pressing ahead with taking Israel to the international criminal court – a key Israeli concern – for up to 12 weeks. But they also want to see a proposed map with defined borders at the start of any talks.
| Whereas the Israelis think the map comes at the end, after the Paleos agree that Israel has a right to be on the map... |
It all seems reasonably promising on paper, but the reality on the ground looks rather different.
The new Israeli government, sworn in two days before Obama's visit, is a rightwing pro-settler coalition. One of its key partners, the Jewish Home party led by Naftali Bennett, is vehemently opposed to a two-state solution. Netanyahu also has a long track record of saying he wants peace talks while pursuing a colonialist policy in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
On the Palestinian side, frustration is growing at the lack of a political horizon and the continued suffocated existence under occupation. Cynicism about the "peace process" abounds, faith in Abbas is plummeting and the mood among young men in villages and refugee camps is growing more radical. Talk of a new Palestinian intifada (uprising) is common both on the street and in Israeli military-intelligence circles.
In Gaza, perhaps the most complicated and least discussed aspect of any peace talks, rocket fire has resumed on a limited scale over recent weeks. Another conflict like those in 2008-9 and 2012 would likely derail Kerry's ambitions.
Kerry will also focus on Iran's nuclear programme, as well as the worsening situation in Syria and its knock-on effect in Lebanon. The secretary of state will have his hands full. "It's too early to be optimistic," said a western diplomat.