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Home Front: WoT
U.S. Intelligence Report Says Islamist Terrorism 'Could End by 2030'
2012-12-12
Most anything could happen. The question is, what is the probability?
[CNSNews] The wave of Islamist terrorism is receding and "could end by 2030," according to a new long-term assessment by the U.S. intelligence community.
The greying of the Ummah as birth rates continue their precipitous drop since the 1970s should have an impact. Also the killing of so many whose first impulse is to violence, first attacking the unbelievers in Afghanistan and Iraq, but second among themselves as the Arab Spring turns into bloody revolution, and all the various factions of Muslim fanaticism tear and claw at each other when they cannot reach further... But will the call to jihad really succumb to a rising tide of age and despair? What say you, O Rantburgers?
In support of that projection, the study released on Monday said the view of America as the "great enemy" was becoming less appealing, resulting in part from the departure of U.S. forces from Iraq and Afghanistan.
See full report here.
It also cited political upheavals in the Arab world, and said that a new generation of young Moslems may be less interested in the narrative of a "conflict between fundamental values."

"Several circumstances are ending the current Islamist phase of terrorism, which suggest that as with other terrorist waves -- the Anarchists in the 1880s and 90s, the postwar anti-colonial terrorist movements, the New Left in 1970s -- the recent religious wave is receding and could end by 2030," said the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030 report.

Since 1996 the NIC, which reports to the director of national intelligence, has prepared a trends analysis roughly every four years for the incoming president. This time it discussed the draft with experts in almost 20 countries, and the views of those "interlocutors" are reflected in the final 166-page document.

Despite the upbeat assessment on the likelihood of an end to Islamist terrorism, the report conceded that terror would probably not die out altogether.

Some al-Qaeda affiliates and groups like Hezbollah may continue to pose threats, and states like Iran and Pakistain could continue to use terror groups as proxies, it said.

In the years to come, the study said, Death Eaters may focus less on trying to inflict mass casualties and more on causing widespread economic chaos by targeting critical cyber systems.

A headline projection in Global Trends 2030 is an end to the post-Cold War "unipolar" order, with power shifting away from a single "hegemonic power" towards "networks and coalitions in a multipolar world."

"By 2030, no country -- whether the U.S., China, or any other large country -- will be a hegemonic power," it said, but predicted the U.S. would probably remain "first among equals."
More at the link.
Posted by:trailing wife

#16  WORLD NEWS > [Washinton Times] END OF THE AMERICAN SUPERPOWER, vee NIC's "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" Report.

ARTIC > USA = OBAMA Admin is intentionally choosing to empower or induce US DECLINE, FUTURE WILL INDEED "BELONG TO CHINA" OR OTHER NON-US UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES.

and

* SAME > [CNN.com] US TO FACE 2030 AS "FIRST AMONG EQUALS".

That remains to be seen, as per the old saying "Some may be/end up being more 'Equal' than Others" - THE SO-CALLED "UNIPOLAR WORLD" OF THE 20TH CENTURY + COLD WAR MAY ENDING, BUTS ITS NOT CLEAR WHAT IS REPLACING IT, OR IFF GENUINE WORLD PEACE WILL BE THE OUTCOME???

* WAFF > [StrategyPage] THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING US NAVY.

ARTIC = denotes that current + future USDOD budgets will not be enough to support either the US Gepol agenda or that of the Navy as a uniformed service, THE BIGGEST PROB FOR THE US NAVY LEADERSHIP IS THE NAVY LEADERSHIP.

Iff Navy vessels were "oily" before, they may be moreso as per anti-GWCC special lubes, paints, + cleaners???

* DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > THE US WANTS OUT OF [China-vs-Japan] PACIFIC ISLANDS MESSES.

Once again, either China backs down, or China + PLA will start shooting, to which History suggests the latter is more likely.

D *** NG IT, WHATS THE US GONNA DO - SINK STRATEGIC PACIFIC ISLANDS, E.G. GUAM, WID EARTHQUAKE/TECTONIC BOMBS AS IT RETREATS OR PULLS BACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO CONUS!

[1960's = 1990's DESTRUCTION OF THE BATTLESHIP OKLAHOMA: THEME FROM "TITANIC" [Celine Dion] = "GUAM WILL CAPSIZE" FROM MARINE BUILDUP
here].

Milwaukee + Michelle's Brigade paging HUGO ...
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-12-12 23:10  

#15  Utah Uber Alles!
Posted by: Shipman   2012-12-12 18:05  

#14  Why did they stop reproducing?

Do you mean the Muslims, Hellfish? According to Spengler, two reasons:

1) educated women have fewer offspring, and have them later, whether or not they work outside the home, and

2) the response of a culture unable to compete, whether because it is conquered in war or visibly less effective in delivering health, wealth, and happiness in peace is despair, which leads to a reduction in those activities which express trust in the future: innovation and starting new businesses, marriage, and having children.

The Medes and the Persians in Iran, for instance, have a birthrate somewhere around 1.2, as I recall, where simple replacement is 2.1. The Turks of Turkey, ditto -- or at least the Western, educated ones -- whereas the Kurds in both countries, as well as in Iraq have a birthrate around 4. Even the Palestinians are having significantly fewer children than a generation ago, such that the population in the territories a few years ago was discovered to be about a million less than claimed.
Posted by: trailing wife   2012-12-12 15:45  

#13  Why did they stop reproducing?
Posted by: Hellfish   2012-12-12 12:18  

#12  Strategypage.com has commented several times about how Islamic terrorism seems to come in waves. It flares up, kills mostly other muslims, then trails off.

The problem is nothing is solved. The same conditions that angered the jihadis continue, and the Ummah refuses to renounce terrorism as a way to get unbelievers to convert.

I believe the Ummah is producing a large number of young men who are sexually frustrated sadists. As long as these men can mumble a few lines from the Koran and get support from the ummah, Islamist terrorism is never going to end. In 2030 or any other year.

Al
Posted by: Frozen Al   2012-12-12 11:41  

#11  Really?

This kind of intelligence should be good reason for discharge with cause for incompetence.

My word this is either a highly politicized report or these guys are another bunch of intell weenies locked in their office with too little experience in the ME.

When they kill each other over the succession to Mohammed who died in 832, and kill everyone else over the First Crusade which occured in 1045, it is obvious they are just all completely nuts.
Posted by: Bill Clinton   2012-12-12 10:43  

#10  Wow! It only took 1600+ years. The only time 'Radical Islamists' have been peaceful over that time period was when they were sent to meet Allah. It's gonna take a whole lot more drones for this to occur by 2030.
Posted by: Past Master of the Obvious   2012-12-12 07:39  

#9  Basically because in coming decades certain or select aspects of "Peak Everything" was found to be more accurate than realized today

Include peak government in that, and, well..
Posted by: no mo uro   2012-12-12 05:59  

#8  No it will not. There'll be plenty of murder---but without risk to the murderers.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2012-12-12 02:18  

#7  If the Dar wins, terrorism will simply continue under another name and perhaps new management.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2012-12-12 02:17  

#6  It could be over for the most part tomorrow evening if an effective kinetic example were made of a few of key and strategic cities. I might proffer a list, but it would be unnecessary with this audience. If my history is correct, none of the major or lesser campaigns of WWII were won through targeting assignation of the enemy.
Posted by: Besoeker   2012-12-12 01:51  

#5  By 2030 Dar will either.
(1) Win---in which case terrorism will stop.
(2) Be reduced to its natural state of bunch of savages on the outskirts of civilization---in which case terrorism will stop.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2012-12-12 01:40  

#4  COASTTOCOASTAM > [Wired.com] US SPIES SEE SUPERHUMANS, INSTANT CITIES BY 2030.

Mega-Cities [Super City-States] to steadily take the realms from traditional organized Nation-States???
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-12-12 01:30  

#3  Say it wid me Amerikka - YA SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN LINDSAY DYES HER HAIR PURPLE!
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-12-12 00:59  

#2  Ah yes, Year 2030 ...
> USA may no longer be the World's Sole Superpower, or even to be a Superpower.
> Radical Islam may or may NOT have lost the GWOT = Global Jihad???
> Comet Apophis 2029-2036 = Moon wiped out, as due to lack of effective OWG Space Defense as due to lack of reliable or effective OWG.
> As linked or related to "Peak Oil/Resources" + BP Deepwater Horizon [Gulf of Mexico spill], UNO declares "Fracking" an International Crime agz the Planet-Humanity.

Basically because in coming decades certain or select aspects of "Peak Everything" was found to be more accurate than realized today, as per "OWG Consensus is that there is such Consensus".
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-12-12 00:57  

#1  See also RELATED DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > ASIA TO OVERTAKE NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE IN COMBINED GLOBAL POWER BY 2030 | [China Post] INDIA TO OUTPACE CHINA BY 2030: US INTELLIGENCE REPORT.

* SAME > ASIA TO BE GLOBAL POWER BY 2030: US REPORT.

versus

* WAFF > US SECRET SERVICE TALKS ABOUT AMPUTATION OF TURKEY IN 2030 | US INTEL PREDICTS KURDISH SECESSION FROM TURKEY [etal.] AROUND 2030.

Potential loss of sovereign land by Turkey + other ME Countries to new Kurdistan State

* SAME > FAILED RESET? US DECRIES [Re]
"SOVIETIZATION" OF FORMER USSR STATES, as under the guise = false/broad cover of Vlad-proposed "EURASIAN UNION", Customs Union, or similar label, notsomuch a formal return of the "USSR" proper.

RELATED WAFF > CLINTON [SecState Hillary] FEARS EFFORT TO "RE-SOVIETIZE" IN EUROPE, i.e. much of Eastern Europe [ex-Soviet Bloc = Warsaw Pact] + Central Asia Region [ex-Soviet Stans].

* INDEPENDENT.UK > PRESSURE ON DWINDLING RESOURCES THREATENS "GLOBAL CHAOS" [consequent rise in Hunger and ultimately Warfare]. DEMAND FOR BASIC COMMODITIES TO SOAR OVER NEXT 20 YEARS.

* REDIFF > BY 2050. 20% OF INDIA'S POPULATION WILL BE OLD.

Lest we fergit, roughly ditto for JAPAN + ROK + SE ASIA.

* CHINA DAILY FORUM > UK-STYLE SECRETARY OF LABOUR FOR OBAMA ADMINISTRATION STARTING IN 2013?
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-12-12 00:46  

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