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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Climate Change Means Less Ice. And More Ice.
2012-10-14
Of course. Why didn't they think of this years ago?
While the North Pole has been losing sea ice over the years, the water nearest the South Pole has been gaining it. Antarctic sea ice hit a record 7.51 million square miles in September. That happened just days after reports of the biggest loss of Arctic sea ice on record.

While the Arctic is open ocean encircled by land, the Antarctic - about 1.5 times the size of the U.S. - is land circled by ocean, leaving more room for sea ice to spread. That geography makes a dramatic difference in the two polar climates.

The Arctic ice responds more directly to warmth. In the Antarctic, the main driver is wind, Maksym and other scientists say. Changes in the strength and motion of winds are now pushing the ice farther north, extending its reach.
I'm hoping phil_b has some insight here.
Mark Serreze, director of the snow and ice data center, says computer models have long predicted that Antarctica would not respond as quickly to global warming as other places. Since 1960, the Arctic has warmed the most of the world's regions, and Antarctica has warmed the least, according to NASA data.
So how does that relate to more ice? You just made an argument for not-shrinking-so-fast, not growing.
Posted by:Bobby

#7  lg, not in the southern hemisphere where almost all sea ice is seasonal, and black carbon deposition is minimal.

If the ice gets slushy as it melts, then that will decrease albedo, but I don't know if thats a significant factor. I believe most melt of SH sea ice is from below.
Posted by: phil_b   2012-10-14 20:53  

#6  Phil,

doesn't sea ice get less reflective with time?

maybe down to 40% or so depending on the sun angle
Posted by: lord garth   2012-10-14 19:53  

#5  What is not generally appreciated is how much closer to the equator sea ice is in the Southern Hemisphere.

And the increase in SH sea ice is mostly where its closest to the equator. And incidentally directly south of where I live.

Why does this matter?

In a word, albedo.

We are well past the spring equinox and that new sea ice is reflecting approx 80% of sunlight right back out to space, where previously 80% would have gone into warming the ocean.

This a positive cooling feedback. I'm making no predictions, but keep a close eye on this.
Posted by: phil_b   2012-10-14 19:11  

#4  Less ice, more ice - no problemo. Just tell us what you want. A couple tweaks to the computer model and it's grant money, here we come! (and can we *please* not try to inject actual data into this discussion?)
Posted by: SteveS   2012-10-14 18:13  

#3  They'll continue to rebuild the Ptolemaic model of the universe too. It's just the numbers have to be recalculated to account for all the variables that seem to screw up the model's projection.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2012-10-14 17:30  

#2  ....but, then again....:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html

(linkie-thingie no workie....)

Posted by: Uncle Phester   2012-10-14 16:37  

#1  regardless, the grant app opportunities abound!
Posted by: Frank G   2012-10-14 16:33  

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