| Then again, they may not... |
Israel's warning last week that Iran will be on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon by mid-2013 seemed to refer to when it could have a sufficient stock of higher-grade uranium to make a quick dash to produce a bomb's worth of weapon-grade material.
But, analysts say, Tehran would need time also for the technologically complicated task of fashioning highly refined uranium gas into a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile - if it opts for such weapons of mass destruction.
| It's an integrated plan -- one in which problems are solved in parallel, rather than in series. They're working on getting a fissible bang, and on a small enough warhead, and on a missile delivery system, and on command and control, and on a guidance system, and they're doing it all at the same time. They understand that they won't have all the pieces finished at the same time, as some parts of the final, integrated solution will lag. But they're big enough and have enough resources to solve multiple problems at once. |
| And if they have, they'll be solving problems as they go along. |
| The diplomat certainly doesn't, though he gives Rooters a good enough quote... |
| Thank you, oh obvious and clueless experts... |
| Guess what kind of 'think tank' just from the title. Think Shannon has any incentive to say that Iran could perhaps maybe solve its problems quickly? |
"Additional time - up to two years, according to conservative estimates - would be required for Iran to build a nuclear warhead that would be reliably deliverable by a missile," they said in a report published last month.
| Depends on what they've imported from Pakistan and North Korea... |
Senior researcher Greg Jones of the U.S.-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center put forward a much quicker breakout scenario for any bomb bid and suggested a truck rather than a missile could be used for delivery to target.
| Or a rusty scow. Or an airplane. There's all sorts of ways to deliver a bomb. It depends on your strategic goals, your capabilities and the required degree of certainty. |
But the IISS argued in a report last year that the weaponisation time must be added to that required to produce the fissile material to calculate when a usable bomb could be made. Making the actual weapon entails converting uranium gas to metal, designing a nuclear triggering device and the production and fitting of spherical explosive lenses, it said.
| Unless they're doing much of the work in parallel... |
"The information indicates that prior to the end of 2003 the activities took place under a structured program; that some continued after 2003; and that some may still be ongoing," the IAEA said in its latest report on Iran, issued in late August.
Washington still believes that Iran is not on the verge of having a nuclear bomb and that it has not made a decision to pursue one, U.S. officials said in August.
| That's what Champ desperately wants to believe, and have the rest of us believe, because otherwise he'll be charged with having 'lost' Iran, and that's a potentially deadly charge in a close election. |
Iran has produced more than 6.8 tonnes of uranium refined up to 5 percent since 2007, an amount experts say could be used for about five nuclear weapons if processed much further. Worryingly for the West and Israel, some of that material has been refined to 20 percent, representing most of the effort involved in reaching potential bomb material.
According to the latest IAEA report, Iran has produced about 190 kg of this higher-grade uranium, about half of which has been earmarked for conversion into research reactor fuel, leaving a stockpile in August of just over 90 kg.
Traditionally, about 250 kg is estimated to be needed for a bomb, but some believe less would do.
"It is widely known that even a first device can be made with much less," the diplomat in Vienna said. But, "no one breaks out to make one warhead. Estimates vary but most think three to five warheads is a minimum to be a real nuclear power."
| Provided they work. |