This article offers an enduring argument against involving American forces in COIN, based on a crucial factor that has hitherto received little attention: the mental health of the populations in weak and failed states. This argument suggests that successfully countering insurgencies in weak and failed states such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and a number of African nations will nearly always be doomed to failure. This position is buttressed by the high rate of pre-existing mental disorder among the populations of failed states. Said another way, the main effort of the counterinsurgencyâthe host nation government and security forceâas well as the population, whose allegiance the counterinsurgent seeks, are both beset by mental disorder.
Central to this argument is the assertion that a nexus exists between weak and failed states, insurgencies and the prevalence of mental disorders. This paper focuses on two: Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and Major Depressive Disorder (depression). Furthermore, this nexus is such that, each of the three characteristics can drive changes in the others. For example, as a state becomes increasingly weak and failed, the likelihood of insurgency increases. As insurgencies and the trauma associated with them intensify, the rates of mental disorder among the population will also increase. As rates of mental disorder increase, the likelihood increases that a state will remain in its failed status. It is difficult to break free from this âstickyâ situation.
This article examines the nexus between weak and failed states, insurgencies and prevalence of mental disorder; the impact of mental disorders on the individual and society; and the interaction between mental disorders and the use of military force. Finally, recommendations will be offered for senior leader consideration.