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| Terror Networks |
| Cultural battlegrounds:Why culture matters in Global War on Terror |
| 2012-09-26 |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #11 The Bell Curve of DOOM. The world has a pattern of major war every 50 plus years give or take a decade (or so). Bosnia, Afgani, Iraq, Libya – skirmishes; little small peaks part of a larger long term wave ending in large kill-off events. Vietnam, WW2, WW1, Spanish American War, Boxer Rebellion, Dungan Revolt, Taiping Rebellion, Napoleonic Wars, Civil War. We're talking conflicts with millions of casualties (outside the Boxer Reb with only a few hundred thousand deaths) in 1975, 1939, 1915, 1911, 1899, 1862, 1851, 1804, 1776. The timeline spans 1975 – 1776, that's two centuries worth of data. Now plot those dates under a bell curve with say a standard deviation of 15years. You’ll see the distribution of most mass kill off events occurring 1 or 2 deviations from the mean. With only the period between Taiping (1851) and Napoleonic Wars (1804) being three standard deviations off the mean. It’s a classic bell. The bell predicts 99.7% of distribution events will lie within three standard deviations of the mean. Outliers are predicted at less than a percent, occurring .30%. What I am getting at: Our current peace period is already three standard deviations from the mean. Vietnam ended in 1975. 2012. 37 years ago. The odds of the current peace period extending past this decade becoming an outlier event are not good. |
| Posted by: mossomo 2012-09-26 19:07 |
| #10 Options are options. It's whether you advocate or chose them and why that matters. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2012-09-26 16:59 |
| #9 I don't comment often but picked my moniker (sp?) 'Total War' very carefully. We are in the 1930s again. Same path to destruction; appeasement, tolerance of the intolerable and sending messages that are ambiguous at best. Ironicaly, I think we will have the same allies in this up coming conflict. China and Russia will not have the luxury to sit back and smile. Genocide? no, but there wil be a terrible body count and it,sadly,won't be just the followers of the Prophet (PBUH, not). This misguided AF guy is just another in the long list of people who should know better but have an anal ocular interconnect that is surgically unrepairable. |
| Posted by: Total War 2012-09-26 14:02 |
| #8 Actual Genocide This won't be by choice on our part but rather a result based on their insanity. |
| Posted by: Silentbrick - Schlumberger Squishy Mud Division 2012-09-26 13:58 |
| #7 Let's call it Total War - the implementation of which wil be based on the facts on the battlefield - maybe including some or all of the above. |
| Posted by: Hellfish 2012-09-26 12:08 |
| #6 Actual Genocide. Wait, what? *blink* Is this sort of thing acceptable here? |
| Posted by: gromky 2012-09-26 10:40 |
| #5 China and Russia will set back, smile, and quietly watch us continue to expend our blood and treasure. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-09-26 09:27 |
| #4 The main cultural transgression in Afghanistan is having armed foreigners there who are not jihadis. That is closely linked to why we're there in the first place. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2012-09-26 09:23 |
| #3 All options will be included in the general war to come. The only question is which side China and Russia will be on. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2012-09-26 08:52 |
| #2 I'm beginning to think our options are. Cultural genocide. Actual Genocide. Quarantine (apt name for islamic infection control). Surrender. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2012-09-26 07:00 |
| #1 Evidence is clear that the spate of Green-on-Blue shootings in Afghanistan is overwhelmingly caused by cultural transgressions. This is the point where I stopped reading. The notion that somehow, our lack of knowledge about these heathen, is to blame for their betrayal is repulsive. Even more repulsive however, is the fact our own government fully endorses the notion. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-09-26 04:25 |