Regardless of how one refers to it, we have seen a sort of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, for some eight months now, since August 2011. The group fired a few Grad rockets
...Soviet-developed 122-mm rockets, usually launched from trucks. Newer versions are reported to have a range of up to 30 km....
at Israel for the last time during the round of escalation following the terror attack near Eilat. Since then, Hamas has adhered to the rule it set for itself -- no attacks initiated against Israel. The group only responds when IDF troops cross the fence.
And so, for example, during the last round of Gazoo escalation in March, after Israel assassinated the Popular Resistance Committees' secretary general and other group activists, Hamas did not join the retaliatory attacks, but rather, sought a way to calm the tensions. Here and there we saw "private initiatives," but the Hamas establishment showed disciplined restraint.
According to recently published and apparently credible reports, Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, formed in Gazoo a special police force tasked with thwarting rocket fire by various "rogue organizations." The force has already started to operate, and according to rumors its members are adopting a firm hand and working effectively.
Meanwhile,
...back at the Alamo, Davy was counting their remaining cannon balls and not liking the results...
on the civilian-economic front, we have recently seen a gradual increase in the number of trucks transporting goods and fuel from Israel into the Strip as well as Gazoo goods exported via Israel's ports.
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The days of the Messiah have not yet arrived. The Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, movement constantly states that it has not renounced the "liberation of occupied land via armed struggle." Israel too has not changed its declared policy, which rejects contacts with Hamas as long as the group does not accept the principles set out by the International
Quartet... The Quartet are the UN (xylophone), the United States (alto), the European Union (soprano), and Russia (shortstop). The group was established in Madrid in 2002 by former Spanish Prime Minister Aznar, as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Tony Blair is the Quartet's current Special Envoy....
. However,
today is that tomorrow you were thinking about yesterday...
direct contacts are taking police in the field, among low-level officials, while indirect negotiations are occasionally held in Cairo with Egyptian mediation.
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In fact, this is a classic hudna (temporary ceasefire) in line with the principles of ancient Islam. It will continue as long as Egypt, Hamas' new patron, will want it, and end once Hamas' leadership will decide that renewing the violence against Israel serves the organization's objectives more than the lull does.
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The Iron Dome factorÂ
However,
today is that tomorrow you were thinking about yesterday...
Hamas is not the only player in town. The large "rogue organizations," headed by Paleostinian Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the liquidation of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
in the Strip, have complied with Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason,' and Egypt's orders, but have also attempted to carry out attacks via the Sinai. Yet Hamas usually refrains from Sinai activities that anger the Egyptians.
In their talks with Gazoo groups, one of the most powerful arguments used by Hamas officials in favor of the lull is the success of the Iron Dome anti-rocket system. According to a well placed source, Hamas argues that every round of fighting boosts Iron Dome's efficiency and the public pressure in Israel to acquire many more batteries. Hence, says Hamas, it would be better to minimize the fighting and accumulate very large quantities of rockets and launchers of various types. The group believes that mass fire will "flood" the Iron Dome systems and neutralize them (or at the very least, impose a heavy financial burden on Israel.)
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In any case, there is almost no doubt that Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, at this time has a strong interest in maintaining the hudna, for the following reasons:
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