You have commented 339 times on Rantburg.

Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Foto Photo
Submit your comments on this article
China-Japan-Koreas
Japanese nation to go extinct in 1,000 years
2012-05-12
[Bangla Daily Star] Japanese researchers yesterday unveiled a population clock that showed the nation's people could theoretically become extinct in 1,000 years because of declining birth rates.

Academics in the northern city of Sendai said that Japan's population of children aged up to 14, which now stands at 16.6 million, is shrinking at the rate of one every 100 seconds.

Their extrapolations pointed to a Japan with no children left within a millennium.
I don't think it works like that. I suspect that below a certain density of possible mates, people either go outside the group or give up...or choose to have large families.
"If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children's Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child," said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University.

"But 100 seconds later there will be no children left," he said. "The overall trend is towards extinction, which started in 1975 when Japan's fertility rate fell below two."
Posted by:Fred

#12  This is stupid to extrapolate so far out. Here in Estonia, we've been at 1.2 since the fall of communism. Now we're at replacement rate. Gotta have something to do during the global recession ...

Circumstances change.
Posted by: Mizzou Mafia   2012-05-12 17:52  

#11  Ah, by then the world's temperature will have risen an extra 40 C and the ocean will have risen 80 feet.
Posted by: swksvolFF   2012-05-12 17:48  

#10  Oh, look! Someone drew a straight line on a logarithmic graph and extrapolated ten centuries into the future. Social scientists should not be allowed anywhere near numbers.
Posted by: SteveS   2012-05-12 17:28  

#9  Water Modem: I did not need to know that. Now I have the image of fat Otaku's running around in diapers.
Posted by: Charles   2012-05-12 16:45  

#8  And you can get a child in 1 month... if you impregnate 9 women....

I think at some point an instinctive 'lets boink like bunnies and multiply' kicks in.
Posted by: CrazyFool   2012-05-12 12:14  

#7  Or it might be that people's life expectancy is rising.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2012-05-12 12:06  

#6  Japan's adult diaper use now exceeds child diaper use so this might be a bit on the long side for an estimate.
Posted by: Water Modem   2012-05-12 11:33  

#5  Just dont send any more people to Guam, it might tip over.
Posted by: OldSpook   2012-05-12 11:15  

#4  The same extrapolation would say the population of Africa would reach 100 billion.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2012-05-12 08:14  

#3  Almost as stupid as CAGW predictions and that's really saying something.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2012-05-12 08:13  

#2  So long? I'd put it as 1 -1.5 generations for Europe. And, IMO, Japan just as bad.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2012-05-12 04:37  

#1  See also TOPIX > [Japan] YOUNG POPULATION DECLINING, EXCEPT FOR OKINAWA PERFECTURE.

Oki at 17.7% has Nippon's highest percentage of persons under age 15.

WE-DON'T-HAVE-NUCLEAR-WEAPONS US ALLY NIPPON MAY GO EXTINCT SOONER THAN 100O YEARS IF IT GOES TOO FAR VEE RILING UP WE-DO-HAVE-NUCLEAR-WEAPONS RISING CHINA ....

* SAME > TOKYO RAISES Y$76.0+MILYUHN TO BUY SENKAKUS ISLANDS.

* WORLD MILITARY FORUM > EXPERTS: US + JAPAN FORCING WAR ON CHINA IN NE ASIA DUE TO PLANNED JAPANESE SDF GARRISONS ON YONUGUNI ISLAND NEAR TAIWAN AND TINIAN ISLAND IN MARIANAS NEAR GUAM BASE, TAKEOVER OF US MILITARY BASES IN OKINAWA. A

Or vee ASEAN in the South China Sea...

* CHINA DAILY FORUM > [Scarborough Shoal] WAR DECLARATION? CHINA PREPARED TO RESPOND TO ANYTHING THE PHILIPPINES DOES, including but not limited to Military.

* SAME > MILITARY NEWSPAPER WARNS MANILA [+ US by implication or inference]. "Seizure" by the PHIL, OR ANYONE SUPPORTING OR BACKING THE PHILIPPINES, of Huangyan Island sovereignty is unacceptable to China + PLA.

* SAME > MAJOR GEN. LUO > CHINA WILL NOT ABANDON THE "WAR OPTION".

* FREEREPUBLIC > CHINA WARNS PHILIPPINES OF WAR.

* DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > CHINA-PHILIPPINES STANDOFF - WILL THE US GET INVOLVED?

US in difficult position of supporting its Treaty obligations to defend its PHIL Ally while simul attempting to appear neutral.

* SAME > OFFICIAL: US-PHILIPPINES TREATY [Mutual Defense] COVERS CONFLICT AREA.

* SAME > [PHIL Senator] TRILLANES: PHILIPPPINES CAN'T [militarily] FIGHT CHINA, as it lacks the unilateral mil capability to either seriously confront or combat China, let alone defeat China.

* SAME > PHILIPPINE MILITARY [is now] MUM/QUIET ON PANATAG SITUATION.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-05-12 00:37  

00:00