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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com
With one third of the campaign period expiring and two months to go Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto appears to be on a comfortable glide path to victory for Mexican president of the republic according to polling data supplied by Milenio news daily.
Leaving out undecided voters, Pena Nieto has a commanding 53.8 percent of voter's preferences compared to his nearest rival, Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota with 25.5 percent and leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with 18.4 percent.
When compared to totals from just three and four weeks ago, Pena Nieto appears to have extended his already commanding lead from 50 percent to 53.8 percent while his rivals' totals have declined.
When taking into account undecided voters, Pena Nieto has extended his lead over his two rivals by another percentage point going from 38.4 percent to 39.9 percent, while Vazquez Mota has lost ground from 21 percent to 18.8 percent. Lopez Orbador's position has improved slightly as well going from 12.8 percent at the start to 13.9 percent to date.
The biggest problem for PRI now is the second largest voting block in Mexico, the undecided voters making up 25.9 percent of the totals. While it is unlikely such a large, amorphous group will break for just one candidate, it does show that voters have yet to settle on PRI's return to Los Pinos, the Mexican president's official residence on July 1st. That reticence may show up later in legislative races. However, that is unlikely.
Previous statehouse victories in 2011 by PRI were accompanied by crushing wins in local chambers of deputies races, except in Michoacan state last November, where PRI failed to win a majority of the seats.
PRI's commanding leads in the polls show a tremendous ground game than none of their rivals have yet to effectively stop or even slow down.
PAN is showing all the signs of a political campaign imploding, starting with embarrassingly low turnouts to campaign events, slow, flat-footed responses to the coming crisis and an abject political tone-deafness in PAN leadership, both past and current.
PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz himself announced last week his return to the senate seat he left just a little over one year ago, protesting he can be a Mexican senator, president of PAN and also help Vazquez Mota with her campaign.
So far, publicity stunts involving Madero himself have fallen short, including attack ads against Pena Nieto and an informal debate between himself and Vazquez Mota campaign director Roberto Gil Zuarth, and lower level PRI operatives. Instead of moving polls for PAN, his efforts have been counterproductive, costing Vazquez Mota in the polls.
Even the normally polite Mexican press has noticed, including a Durango writer who Saturday said that only a rising tide will help PAN, not moving the rudder.
Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com