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Caribbean-Latin America
Mexican Presidential Poll, April 23rd
2012-04-24

For a map, click here

By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

Following the second full week of campaigning, Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto enjoys a commanding double digit lead over all three of his rivals, according to polling data supplied by Milenio news daily.

Enrique Pena Nieto
Current data shows preference totals including undecided voters, where the race is the closest. Pena Nieto claims 36.7 percent of voter preference, while Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) presidential candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota is second with 21.7 percent, and leftist alliance candidate Andres Manual Lopez Obrador is third with 17.2 percentage.

Undecided voters comprise 23.5 percent of the total polled, which in a three way race is a significant voting block.

When compared with results of polls from the first full week of campaigning, April 9th, little has changed for any candidate. The April 9th poll had Pena Nieto with 38.4 percent, and Vazquez Mota with 21.1 percent.

Josefina Vazquez Mota
The latest results do not even show a bounce for PAN from the negative ads launched last week. PRI leaders pledged last week not to divide the vote with negative campaigning.

However, that may all be changing as Monday Pena Nieto released a new attack spot ad that responds to charges of lying against him and PRI.

Pena Nieto has to be careful. One wrong word, one misstated fact and his campaign will suffer at the hands of the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE), which closely monitors spot ads produced by the four camps.

Negative campaigning is always dangerous for both the target as well as the camp displaying it. It can easily backfire, as can any responses.

Gustavo Madero Munoz
PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz also has to be careful. Signs are appearing in Mexican press that some national legislative candidates are trying to distance themselves from the new negative campaigning. The lack of candidate unity among PAN legislative candidate could hurt PAN in those races.

Despite that, data shows that Mexican voters have yet to close escrow on Pena Nieto. His coming counterattack ads could change that calculus.
Posted by:badanov

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