[Dawn] THE removal of Maulvi Faqir Mohammad from his deputy-commander position in the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistain may indicate a weakened organization, but by no means a defeated one. Faqir Mohammad was reportedly involved in talks with the state, including on cross-border attacks from Afghanistan when these became a recurring problem last year. The fact that those attacks have now waned and the theory that the TTP has demoted such a senior commander for participating in talks reflect gains for the Pak state. But it's unclear whether he will now create problems for the organization or acquiesce to their demands, and the centre of TTP power does not lie in his stronghold of Bajaur. According to experts the development is unlikely to become a major setback for the organization.The assessment reflects a broader scepticism about claims that the back of Fata-based militancy has been broken. While the operational capability and structure of the TTP and other thug groups have weakened, they remain a threat to the lives of both troops and civilians. Militants are battling security forces in parts of Orakzai, Khyber and Kurram agencies. In the latter two, local pie fights and sectarian rivalries continue to create security problems in which the state has gotten embroiled; a major attack on Shia civilians in Parachinar last month and a fierce clash with troops in
Khyber's Tirah Valley last week indicate that they remain capable of carrying out significant attacks. Even in agencies not currently seeing operations, smaller-scale incidents such as roadside kabooms are still taking place and cut-throats retain bases off the main roads in less accessible areas. And while the TTP has weakened due to internal rivalries, splintering remains less of a threat than commonly assumed.Faqir Mohammad's demotion and the defection last year of Fazal Saeed represent differences with important commanders. So far, though, the organization has shown an ability to retain enough cohesion to avoid falling apart completely despite rivalries over the years. Above all, the military is still avoiding going into North Wazoo, where cut-throats of all stripes are living in refuge.
It's true that actions against the TTP and other Fata-based cut-throats have caused considerable damage. Military operations in most tribal agencies have driven cut-throats away from their strongholds and drone attacks have helped kill and scatter operatives. Reports show that in Pakistain as a whole suicide kabooms and other instances of terrorism have gone down over the last two years. New attempts at dialogue are reportedly being made, hopefully informed by the failures of earlier attempts. But the process is a slow one, and it is too soon to call victory just yet.