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Economy |
Unexpectedly Initial Claims Back Over 400,000 (Post Next Week's Revision) |
2012-01-13 |
![]() As long expected, the temp hire surge, so effectively used by retailers to dump inventory below cost (just ask Sears), is over, and in the first week of 2012, Seasonally Adjusted claims soared to 399,000, the highest since November and a number which next week will be revised over 400,000, a decimation of expectations of 375,000 (naturally last week's number was revised upward from 372K to 375K - a long-lasting BLS tradition of fudging data that everyone knows about now). The Non-Seasonally adjusted number was +102,314 claims in the first week of the year. And the real question is how many of these real departures were of the banker type, where the impact on lost withholding taxes going forward, and thus government revenues, will be quite dire. Continuing claims also missed expectations, rising to 3628K from a revised 3609K (expectation was for an unchanged print, pre-revision, of 3595K). And the worst news is that the 99-week cliff continues to grab more and more, with 48k people dropping off all rolls, and thus from the labor force completely, meaning the labor force participation rate in January will likely drop to another fresh 30 year low. |
Posted by:Beavis |
#7 Who could possibly think initial claims "unexpectedly" jumped again? It has been "unexpected" most weeks for years now. |
Posted by: whatadeal 2012-01-13 21:24 |
#6 Being retired allows me to recive junk mail that is very different prior to my retirement. Should I recieve any assistance benefits I am entitled to a free wireless phone, free minutes for a year, so on and so on.From medicade to Snap.This is how it's done now to control votes. What else will they offer people. Try to get a job and they give you a hard time. Try to get something like assistance come on down. I realize for some that may not be so easy. |
Posted by: Dale 2012-01-13 17:59 |
#5 not good numbers but not as dire as zerohedge implies (I think he knows this) the year ago numbers were 437k for the seasonally adjusted initial claims and 773k for not seasonally adjusted initial claims For whatever reasons, the seasonal shopping peak has been getting higher for several years and also begun earlier than it used to and also the merchant discounting has begun earlier and been more aggressive. |
Posted by: Lord Garth 2012-01-13 14:27 |
#4 Are you refering to NEW claims, or to redurring claims? (one a month) BIG difference. |
Posted by: Redneck Jim 2012-01-13 11:32 |
#3 UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 642,381 in the week ending January 7, an increase of 102,314 from the previous week. |
Posted by: Thaing Hatfield5066 2012-01-13 08:33 |
#2 "Novartis (NYSE: NVS), the drug giant, said it will fire 1,960 people in the U.S. New product introductions have slowed. Some current products have sales difficulties". Many others doing the same. Many areas of our economy now. I believe that at some point they will do away with this reporting the closer we get to the election. Perhaps they will keep it and just fudge the numbers more. |
Posted by: Dale 2012-01-13 07:41 |
#1 Beavis, you forgot the Lucy holding the football pic. It's obligatory when posting anything regarding monthly jobless claims. |
Posted by: gorb 2012-01-13 00:44 |