The May 2 US operation to track down the late Osama bin Laden
... who is no more...
and the Nov 26 NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
air strikes on two Pak military check posts in
Mohmand... Named for the Mohmand clan of the Sarban Pahstuns, a truculent, quarrelsome lot. In Pakistain, the Mohmands infest their eponymous Agency, metastasizing as far as the plains of Beautiful Downtown Peshawar, Charsadda, and Mardan. Mohmands are also scattered throughout Pakistan in urban areas including Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta. In Afghanistan they are mainly found in Nangarhar and Kunar...
Agency, which caused the death of 24 Pak soldiers, the subsequent suspension of supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan through Pakistain and the vacating of the Shamsi airbase by the US further increased these concerns, which need to be adjusted in the strategic doctrine.
Changes in the strategic doctrine cannot come about overnight and have to factor in how the situation would evolve after the exit of NATO troops from Afghanistan. Pakistain did not have any major armed conflict along the Afghan border and had not deployed regular army units there until after 9/11.
Pakistain deployed its regular forces at the border for the first time to stop infiltration of Al Qaeda and Taliban remnants when US-led coalition forces invaded Afghanistan to oust the Taliban regime from power. Afghanistan has also stationed troops along the border where small-scale armed festivities with Pak forces have become the norm.
According to data compiled by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, from 2007 to 2010, NATO forces and the Afghan National Army violated Pakistain's borders at least 194 times. The violations included missile and rocket attacks on Pak check posts by Afghan forces, festivities between security forces and air and land incursions into Pakistain. In 2011, as many as 67 such incidents were reported in which 57 Pak soldiers were killed.
A new and worrying development for Pakistain on its western borders has been cross-border attacks by Afghanistan-based Islamic fascisti on Pak security forces' posts. At least 30 such strikes have been reported across Pakistain's border with Afghanistan at Chitral, Upper and Lower Dir and Bajaur and Kurram in Fata, leading to the killing of 250 Pak security personnel and civilians. These Islamic fascisti are part of Taliban factions, who decamped to Afghanistan's border provinces, mainly Kunar, and their attacks have contributed to escalation in bilateral tensions.
The third issue of concern is Afghanistan's internal stability and the Afghan army's continued lack of capacity. According to analysts, US and NATO efforts to develop the security forces in Afghanistan have focused on numbers rather than quality. Also, the loyalty and credibility of Afghan cops remain highly questionable. Analysts argue that the Afghan National Army is far from ready to assume operational command and tackle security responsibilities on its own.
A major concern for Pakistain is the likely scenario of growing instability in Afghanistan after the NATO troops pull out. That can create trouble on the Pak side of the border as many political elements in Pakistain's Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
... formerly NWFP, still Terrorism Central...
province are tied to power brokers on both sides. The nature of relations between Afghanistan and Pakistain may trigger border tensions from time to time.
The fourth major reason for growing strategic sensitivities is the concentration of jihad boy forces along both sides of the border, which may continue to play the role of irritant not only in bilateral ties but also in relation to the international community. India's role in Afghanistan is also an issue central to the changing thinking on matters of strategic interest to Pakistain.
The major casualty in this strategic transformation has been the Afghan-Pakistain Transit Trade Agreement considered an important pact for expanding economic ties between the two countries and also with the Central Asian region. International gas pipeline and electricity transmission projects such as Tapi and Casa-1000 have still not materialised because of security concerns, mainly the decade-long insurgency in Afghanistan.
In this perspective, some attempts have been made by the two countries and by the US to improve the situation. Although most of these attempts were aimed at normalising bilateral relations through developing cooperation in the security and economy sectors, the border security issue has remained at the core of these efforts. In April 2011, Pakistain's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani
... Pakistain's erstwhile current prime minister, whose occasional feats of mental gymnastics can be awe-inspiring ...
, army chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani
... four star general, current Chief of Army Staff of the Mighty Pak Army. Kayani is the former Director General of ISI...
and ISI director general Lt Gen Shuja Pasha visited Kabul in a bid to establish an 'Afghan-led and Afghan-owned joint peace commission' and made efforts for negotiations with the Taliban.
The process continued relatively smoothly until the liquidation of ex-Afghan president and head of the High Peace Council Burhanuddin Rabbani
... the gentlemanly murdered legitimate president of Afghanistan...
in September 2011. Despite a cooperation mechanism in the form of the Pakistain-Afghanistan-US tripartite commission established in 2003, which also comprises a border security sub-committee, and provisions and blueprints for sharing intelligence under the military intelligence-sharing working group, blame for cross-border incursions and attacks has been hurled from both sides of the border.
A meeting of the tripartite commission's military border working group was convened in Peshawar on July 6 this year on Pakistain's request. The committee suggested the establishment of a single point of contact with all Afghan national security forces through a hotline contact between the Pakistain Army and Afghan National Army, regular border flag meetings between local commanders and interaction/jirgas between the maliks of villages on either side of the border. But all these attempts have failed to find a workable mechanism, which has emboldened the Islamic fascisti to roam freely across the border and launch attacks on both sides of the border. This is a very delicate situation for Pakistain as any adjustment in its security doctrine would not only be related to the geo-political interests of the country but also to a change in the military structure which the Pakistain economy would barely be able to sustain. Another important aspect of any possible shift would be the sensitivities on Pakistain's eastern borders with India. The threat perception on the eastern border would be crucial to adjustments in the national security doctrine.