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| Science & Technology |
| Supervolcanoes: Not a Threat For 2012 |
| 2011-11-16 |
| I am sure you all share my relief at this news. The geological record holds clues that throughout Earth's 4.5-billion-year lifetime massive supervolcanoes, far larger than Mount St. Helens or Mount Pinatubo, have erupted. However, despite the claims of those who fear 2012, there’s no evidence that such a supereruption is imminent. What exactly is a "supervolcano" or a "supereruption?" Both terms are fairly new and favored by the media more than scientists, but geologists have begun to use them in recent years to refer to explosive volcanic eruptions that eject about ten thousand times the quantity of magma and ash that Mount St. Helens, one of the most explosive eruptions in recent years, expelled. It’s hard to comprehend an eruption of that scope, but Earth’s surface has preserved distinctive clues of many massive supereruptions. Expansive layers of ash blanket large portions of many continents. And huge hollowed-out calderas – craters that can be as big as 60 miles (100 km) across left when a volcano collapses after emptying its entire magma chamber at once – serve as visceral reminders of past supereruptions in Indonesia, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile. The eruption of these prehistoric supervolcanoes has affected massive areas. The magma flow of Mount Toba in Sumutra, which erupted some 74,000 years ago in what was likely the largest eruption that has ever occurred, released a staggering 700 cubic miles (2,800 cubic km) of magma and left a thick layer of ash over all of South Asia. For comparison, the quantity of magma erupted from Indonesia’s Mount Krakatau in 1883, one of the largest eruptions in recorded history, was about 3 cubic miles (12 cubic km). Volcanologists continue to seek answers to many unanswered questions about supervolcanoes. For example, what triggers their eruptions, and why do they fail to erupt until their magma chambers achieve such enormous proportions? How does the composition compare to more familiar eruptions? And how can we predict when the next supervolcano will erupt? But there’s one thing that all experts agree on: supereruptions, though they occur, are exceedingly rare and the odds that one will occur in the lifetime of anybody reading this article are vanishingly small. Ah yes, the spurious statistical justification. The odds of a supervolcano happening in the lifetime of one recently born person are the same as the chances of it occuring in the lifetimes of the entire Earth's population of 7 billion, but it sounds more certain if you refer to to everyone. The most recent supereruption occurred in New Zealand about 26,000 years ago. The next most recent: the cataclysmic eruption of Mount Toba happened about 50,000 years earlier. In all, geologists have identified the remnant of about 50 supereruptions, though teams are in the process of evaluating a number of other possibilities. |
| Posted by:phil_b |
| #11 Ditto for the 2012/2013, "killer" Solar Storms as per NASA - unfortunately, too many University, Private Perts are not on board wid their assessment [on any]. IOW, we remain at threat because there is no common consensus among US-World Govts, Perts that we are NOT. IT IS UTTERLY NONSENSICAL OR RIDICULOUS FOR VARIOUS PERTS TO FORECAST "PERMANENT" + "HOTTER/DEEPER" GW [GWCC] BY 2050 [2030-2050], BUT NOT SUFFER ANY CORRESPONDING CHANGES IN SOLAR ENERGIES = SOLAR DYNAMICS. SUB-IOW, leads me back to KAMALEN + GUAM/EARTH-VISBLE MOON EXPLOSIONS circa 2030 [ + other] - I don't see anything from NASA, etc. that alters same. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2011-11-16 19:30 |
| #10 There are several spots that have magma pooling under known supervolcanos. One in South America is causing concern as it has risen 1cm/year for 20 years. The real issue is... we have no idea what the precursors are and what means one is about to erupt. There is nothing we could do to stop it, but we could stockpile grain and get people out of the way of the major fallout. As of now, we may miss all the warning signs and be caught flat footed when one goes off. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2011-11-16 18:50 |
| #9 The phrase "famous last words" leaps to mind... |
| Posted by: mojo 2011-11-16 17:40 |
| #8 Obama putting these off like everything else until after the 2012 election? |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2011-11-16 16:50 |
| #7 Oh, and a possible fine for unauthorized emmissions. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2011-11-16 15:43 |
| #6 Simply call them Most Equal Volcanoes, done. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2011-11-16 15:43 |
| #5 All such predictions are based on artificial models of whatever reality underlies things. Our knowledge of THIS reality is rather poor. People displace personal fears of their own death & project it onto the entire human race. But relax. As Spengler says, "It's not the end of the world, it's just the end of YOU." |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-11-16 13:03 |
| #4 Dale, That new volcano in the Canary Islands is awfully close to El Hierro island. I expect the two landforms to join and become one (larger) version of El Hierro. Al |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2011-11-16 12:37 |
| #3 Even Yellowstone is due. One area of current activity |
| Posted by: Dale 2011-11-16 12:16 |
| #2 Now if they can get the weather forecasting correct. Current activities have only increased. Several are due. Just do a current volcanic activity check. This world is not static but ever changing. |
| Posted by: Dale 2011-11-16 09:33 |
| #1 I do indeed feel better at this news; but the real relief is that it wasn't announced by Bambi. We all know his track record at predicting things like basketball, football scores, etc. |
| Posted by: USN, Ret. 2011-11-16 07:49 |