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| Kenyan Motives in Somalia Predate Recent Abductions | |||||
| 2011-10-27 | |||||
| The Kenyan government revealed on Wednesday that its extensive military foray into Somalia this month to battle Islamist militants was not simply a response to a wave of recent kidnappings, as previously claimed, but was actually planned far in advance, part of a covert strategy to penetrate Somalia and keep the violence in one of Africa's most anarchic countries from spilling into one of Africa's most stable. For several years, the American-backed Kenyan military has been secretly arming and training clan-based militias inside Somalia to safeguard Kenya's borders and economic interests, especially a huge port to be built just 60 miles south of Somalia.
When Kenya sent troops storming across Somalia's border on Oct. 16, government officials initially said that they were chasing kidnappers who had recently abducted four Westerners inside Kenya, two from beachside bungalows, and that Kenya had to defend its tourism industry. But on Wednesday, Alfred Mutua, the Kenyan government's chief spokesman, revised this rationale, saying the kidnappings were more of a "good launchpad." "An operation of this magnitude is not planned in a week," Mr. Mutua said. "It's been in the pipeline for a while." Many analysts wonder how Kenya will be able to defy history and stabilize Somalia when the United Nations, the United States, Ethiopia and the African Union have all intervened before, with little success. They argue that the Kenyan operation seems uncoordinated and poorly planned, with hundreds of troops bogged down in the mud from rains that fall at this time every year.
"The invasion was a serious miscalculation, and the Kenyan economy is going to suffer badly," said David M. Anderson, a Kenya specialist at Oxford.
There have already been two grenade attacks in Nairobi, which Kenyan officials said were the work of Shabab members, and this usually laid-back capital city has shifted into war mode. Security guards peer into purses at supermarkets, shopping centers are deserted because many Kenyans are now scared to congregate in public, and the American government has warned of "an imminent threat of terrorist attacks" at malls and nightclubs. Despite their close relationship with Kenyan security services, which receive millions of dollars in American aid each year, American officials said they had been caught off guard by the incursion. "The United States did not encourage the Kenyan government to act, nor did Kenya seek our views," said Katya Thomas, a spokeswoman at the American Embassy in Nairobi. "We note that Kenya has a right to defend itself." Pentagon officials are now watching cautiously. "This is not something that's coordinated with us at all, so it's not something we have much knowledge about," a senior Pentagon official. "We want to see how this develops." Pentagon officials said the immediate impact of dispersing Shabab fighters was good. But without knowing much about the overall Kenyan strategy or long-term plan, they are a bit wary. "It's difficult to discern what's the next step," the official said. Kenyan officials say the next step is marching to Kismayu, a port town controlled by the Shabab, who derive tens of millions of dollars a year in taxes from it.
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| Posted by:Sherry |