CARACAS--Venezuela's voluble and ubiquitous President Hugo Chavez hasn't returned to the public eye after a surgery in Cuba that has friends and foes alike speculating about the state of his health and the future of his rule.| Please bow your head for a moment of silent prayer. [Your god or atheistic belief in the perfectability of Man here], please let the honourable Presidente Hugo Chavez die quickly and in great pain commensurate with the suffering he has imposed on Venezuela and the region, that his country might soon return to the fold of sensible and functioning nations. Amen. |
Those few days have stretched to 11, punctuated by false alarms over the date of his return. On Monday, a ruling party lawmaker said Mr. Chavez was hours from touching down in Caracas and urged his supporters to prepare a "tremendous" welcome for him. The claim was quickly refuted on the Twitter account of Venezuela's Communications Minister Andres Izarra.
| He may have had a pelvic abscess. But read this article, and any others like it, as closely as you will, and you'll not find an answer to the most important question: why did he have a pelvic abscess? Answer that and you'll figure out whether Hugo is on the mend or getting ready to fertilize daisies. Medical problems don't occur in a vacuum. An abscess just doesn't pop up, particularly in a location like the pelvis. Something is going on, and that something led to this. |
| Perhaps there's a reason why El Jefe Fidel brought a Spanish doctor in? |
| Don't expect Chavez and his government to enlighten you, either. It's the classic situation for a dictator: you don't dare show weakness. Ask Saleh in Yemen; he's supposed to be returning home 'any day now'. |
| Not in that particular surgery, anyway... |
The former official also said there was a possibility that Mr. Chavez would be hospitalized when he returned to Venezuela, another potential sign of the severity of his ailment. If it was a matter of simply treating an abscess, Mr. Chavez would likely not need a hospital at that point, the official said.
Once a slender tank commander and would-be major-league baseball pitcher, Mr. Chavez has cultivated an image as a health-conscious sportsman.
| A suggestion given both Fidel's and Hugo's younger days: next time, have Major League Baseball sign the kid instead of letting him grow up to be a communist thug. |
| If only tourists had bought the sketches of that odious little Herr Schiklgruber! |
In Cuba, he suffered acute pain during a meeting with former Cuban leader Fidel Castro and was rushed into surgery.
| There's as non-descriptive a description as you'll ever read. |
In a three-paragraph note, Granma assured its readers that Mr. Chavez was in close communication with top Venezuelan officials and was "on top of the principal issues of his country."
During normal times, Mr. Chavez dominates Venezuela's airwaves and public space. He is prone to break into television broadcasts of baseball games and Venezuelans' favorite soap operas to
Perhaps following Mr. Castro's advice to get some rest, Mr. Chavez has been noticeably silent about the week's events in Venezuela, where 5,000 troops are fighting to squelch a prison rebellion that so far has taken some 40 lives.
Romer Guevara, a 41-year-old court bailiff, said he didn't have any problem with Chavez governing from Cuba while recuperating. Mr. Guevara, who said he was politically neutral, added there was one thing he is sure he hasn't missed during Chavez's absence. "We don't like those long speeches," Mr. Guevara said. "We get tired of all that talking. He interrupts our shows all the time. He cuts in all the time when I'm watching baseball or a basketball game."
But Mr. Chavez has continued to enact major legislation from Havana, over the complaints of opposition lawmakers who unsuccessfully insisted he cede presidential duties during the extended and unplanned absence from Venezuela.
A long absence from Caracas would raise political uncertainty as the nation prepares for presidential elections next year. Mr. Chavez has no heir apparent, and a long absence due to health reasons could touch off a succession struggle between prominent Chavistas who belong to different and competing factions.
"It's revealing how Venezuela depends on one man rule," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank. "There is nobody else. He makes all the decisions. There's a real risk the government won't work if he's out for a long time."
| They could always try democracy. Just a thought. |
| Chavez: What do I care about the welfare of the nation as long as I stay in power and get rich??? |
Now his illness could weaken his movement as it prepares to face a determined opposition in elections.
"Its a classic case of caudillos where there is no heir apparent," said Eric Olson, a Latin American expert at Washington's Woodrow Wilson Center. "His emphasis has been on building up the caudillo and on tearing down institutions."
Mr. Chavez' health is no doubt a major concern in Cuba. Any instability in Venezuela would have a major impact on the economically distressed island, which depends on cut-rate Venezuelan oil and on the personal connection struck with Mr. Chavez, for its economic survival.
Some analysts believe Mr. Chavez' long absence could be a sign his government is entering a crisis, especially if his health deteriorates. But others believe a healthy Mr. Chavez will soon be back giving orders from Venezuela's presidential palace.