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-Short Attention Span Theater-
Understanding Derivatives -- A Primer
2011-05-06
An interesting explanation of derivatives and the banking implosion, received in an e-mail.
Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit.

She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar.

To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.

Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers' loans).

Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit.

By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.

Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit.

He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral!!!

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINK BONDS.

These "securities" then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as "AAA Secured Bonds" really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb!!!, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts.

Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINK BOND prices drop by 90%.

The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities.

They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.

Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers..

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the government.

The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, nondrinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar.

Now do you understand?
Posted by:Bobby

#6  Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.

This illustrates how most people don't realize how bad the situation is.

It should read,

It takes 2 years to foreclose on Heidi's bar and during that time, the regulars get to drink for free and the bank is forced to cover the tab.
Posted by: phil_b   2011-05-06 19:07  

#5  These are all just SYMPTOMS of the real cause.

TOO MUCH CREDIT.

The reason there's too much credit is simple. BASEL 2 removed proper reserve requirements, so lending was unconstrained. Governments loved the extra income form taxation this created, until it all blew up.

It's inevitable that it will blow up as the volume of credit pushes down the yield to below the real risk. After this, systematic default is inevitable.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2011-05-06 18:58  

#4  Bobby I really enjoyed your post and Rantburg comments.
Posted by: Dale   2011-05-06 17:00  

#3  If I might suggest a slight change:

More than a slight change, CF's little detail is the crux of the mortgage mess. Without government meddling, no one would have ever made these loans. The fact that they jumbled good and bad loans together means no one has any idea of what they are actually worth and trading came to a halt.
Posted by: SteveS   2011-05-06 14:35  

#2  If I might suggest a slight change:

At first Heidi is hesitant to run Tabs for unemployed alcoholics. It's a bad risks and just plain unsound business.

But someone named B. O. sued her for discrimination against unemployed alcoholics. Advocacy groups protested outside her business and home and even her daughter Lucy's elementry school. Finally the government wrote a law requiring her to run tabs for unemployed alcoholics or face severe fines and even jail time.

Posted by: CrazyFool   2011-05-06 13:40  

#1  Tarp has been trying to unwind 750 trillion $ worth of these stupid bets. No way can it be accomplished. All that will happen is transfer of the debt from the private Fed to the public Treasury. It's time to pay the citizens in Treasury notes and let the Fed and its Reserve Notes take a dive.
Posted by: Water Modem   2011-05-06 11:01  

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