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Africa North
Debka: US, anti-Qaddafi forces lack military strength
2011-03-07
From March 2nd. Interesting to note what is still valid and what isn't.
Barring changes in the military situation, Muammar Qaddafi looked Wednesday, March 2, as though he had averted his regime's immediate danger of collapse by dint of a successful counter-offensive against rebel forces. His prospects had strikingly improved since Saturday, Feb. 26, when President Barack Obama told him to leave and the UN Security Council clamped down sanctions on his regime.

During the day, the regime's armored forces and commandos supported by the Libyan Air Force recaptured parts of Brega, Libya's refinery city and supplier of the country's benzene, and sections of the Bay of Sirte town of Ajdabiya. debkafile's military sources say the loss of Brega will cause severe fuel and refined oil shortages in rebel-held Cyrenaica in the east.

The reverses suffered by the rebels were implicit in their appeal to the West Tuesday night, March 1 for military intervention, when a few hours earlier they rejected foreign troops coming to their aid. But their SOS came too late.

Unless they can get hold of fuel from outside Libya, the rebels have no chance of organizing enough fighting strength to stand up to Qaddafi's army. Not only have they lost sight of their goal of taking Tripoli but their alternative provisional government in Benghazi is in jeopardy. With the capture of Ajdabiya, Qaddafi's forces control the strategic crossroads linking the two halves of Libya, Tripolitania to Cyrenaica, and have cut off links between the rebels in Cyrenaica and the opposition groups in the west. It is worth noting that troops engaged in Qaddafi's counter-offensive Wednesday came from the strategic town of Sirte, where they were encamped after leading the recapture of Misrata and Zawiya the day before.

The prospect of foreign military intervention on behalf of the Libyan opposition faded Wednesday. By then, British Prime Minister David Cameron was the lone Western voice still talking about a Western or British military option in Libya. Even his close advisers said he was putting his reputation on the line and exposing himself to derision even by calling for the enforcement of a no-fly zone over Libya.
British military circles emphasized that the British army lacks commando strength as well as warplanes and warships for a war operation against Qaddafi, especially for a lengthy campaign. Just this week, 11,000 British troops were sacked in the wake of the Cameron government's defense budget cutbacks.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday that the administration was still very far from imposing no-fly zones over Libya. This was a reversal of her comment Tuesday that this option was being "actively considered" and followed the news conference given Tuesday by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, in which both stressed that the UN Security Council in imposing sanctions on Libya had not authorized outside military intervention.

Gates pointed out that there is "no unanimity within NATO for the use of armed force... and we also have to think about, frankly, the use of the US military in another country in the Middle East." Regarding the imposition of no-fly zones, Adm. Mullen was equally skeptical. He warned that such an operation, which he described as "very complex," could lead to situations in which Americans planes were brought down. Both poured cold water on any military options while Gates pointed out that there was no confirmation of the slaughter of civilians by air bombardment. On the number of protesters killed and army defectors, Gates commented, "We are still in the realm of speculation."

Spokesmen in Washington also worked hard to play down the military significance of the passage of two amphibious assault craft, the USS Kearsarge and the USS Ponc[e], through the Suez Canal to Libyan waters. The Pentagon stressed that the 800 marines aboard these vessels would stand ready to render humanitarian aid and help rescue refugees stranded in Libya.
Posted by:Pappy

#4  AND wasn't it interesting that Gates is saying the military should stay awhile longer than originally planned. Posted by Bill Clinton

No Bill, with due respect, it isn't at all "interesting" but rather, most unfortunate. There will be no "democratizing" or bringing civility to these ancient tribes, not in our lifetimes. Unfortunately, we find ourselves once again in a no-win Police Action, backing a vile and currupt regime of drug smugglers, warlords and highwaymen. Afghanistan is another planet, a distant planet that may never be re-shaped into anything which might sustain life and the rule of law as we know it. The faster we can get out of Afghanistan, the better for all concerned. Our president and the US State Department are giving it thier dead level best to extricate us I can assure you. The taxpayers and our brave soldiers are footing the bill and blood for that very costly effort.

If any good can be said for Secretary Gates it must surely be that he is loyal to a fault. I'll toss in the loyalty of the Chairman and Joint Chiefs as well. It takes an extreme amount of loyalty to remain silent or endorse with consent 'man buggering' and lesbianism as acceptable practices in our military. Men that possess this type of blind loyalty have throughout history been found at the right hand of tyrants. Sic Semper Tyrannis.
Posted by: Besoeker   2011-03-07 12:50  

#3  Don't tar Gates with Obama's incompetent silliness.

Gates was the prexy at Texas A&M for a while. He was good friends with my family and he and I had a couple of chats. He wrote a letter to my son thanking him on his Eagle Scout.

Gates is the one person in the Obama regime I trust. He is basically a conservative and I think he is trying to continue Rummy's plans to rationalize the military from a cold war mentality in which most of the generals and feathermerchants are stuck into the Patreaus model of large numbers of special ops guys, light infantry, quick strike mobile forces and counter insurgency trained independent small units. Many of the generals still like strategic bombers, interceptors instead of attack aircraft and armor instead of light infantry. It took almost six years for the Army to get the message, hence the success in Iraq and the latest progress in Afghanistan.
Gates is going to continue to be painted as a blithering idiot by the press because he is a Bush guy. Isn't it interesting that Obama sent him instead of Biden or one of his other empty suits to Afghanistan.
AND wasn't it interesting that Gates is saying the military should stay awhile longer than originally planned.
Posted by: Bill Clinton   2011-03-07 10:08  

#2  Save the AVGAS. Nothing he or anyone else can achieve in either Kabul or Cairo. He should have gone to Peoria. He might have learned something about fly-over country and real America. Knowledge he and his lazy assed boss are dreadfully lacking.
Posted by: Besoeker   2011-03-07 09:04  

#1  I basically take everything from DEBKA as fantasy. Yesterday they had Gates going to Cairo ... he's in Kabul.

Posted by: crosspatch   2011-03-07 06:11  

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