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| Arabia | |
| Bahrain is a high-stakes bellwether | |
| 2011-02-16 | |
| THERE is something painfully predictable about the course of the unrest sweeping the Arab world. In Bahrain's case, the minority Sunni Muslim leadership has watched helplessly as the protest tsunami rolled from Tunisia across Egypt and now to the warm waters of the Gulf. The first response was to head off the unrest by offering each family $US2700 - in effect, to buy their silence. A similar tactic worked in Kuwait, but it came too late to placate Bahrain. Members of the disgruntled Shia Muslim majority are venting decades of pent-up frustration against the regime and sense that victory is within their grasp. When they mobilised on Monday outside the capital, Manama, the authorities turned to plan B: using force to silence the protest. Riot police fired rubber bullets, teargas and birdshot at demonstrators. Arrests were made and Ali Mushaima, one of the protesters, was killed by police. This was a tragic and stupid mistake. Predictably, his funeral became the focus of the second day's protests, when another demonstrator was killed. This deadly cycle could go on and on. King Hamad Bin Isa al-Khalifa is now trying to calm his subjects. In a rare speech, he offered his condolences and promised reforms, but the concessions are probably too late. The grievances of Bahrain's protest movement are longstanding and their demands simple: a new constitution that reflects the rights of the Shia majority, the release of all political prisoners, freedom of the press, an independent judiciary and a halt to the granting of Bahraini citizenship to boost the Sunni population. At this stage, opposition groups are not demanding the ruling Sunni monarchy be replaced. Bahrain is a country of 500,000 people, but the stakes could not be higher. The emirate hosts the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and is a leading banking and commercial centre. Most importantly, the battle taking place between the two branches of Islam is reflected in what is happening in Iraq, in Lebanon and what could happen in the oil-rich eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia. Where Bahrain goes, others could follow.
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| Posted by:Steve White |