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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Hezbollah Topples Lebanese Government
2011-01-12
The Islamic militant group Hezbollah and its allies plan to resign from the Lebanese Cabinet and topple the government on Wednesday over tensions stemming from the international investigation of the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, officials said.

The ministers were planning to resign in the afternoon unless Western-backed Prime Minister Saad Hariri -- the son of the slain leader -- agrees to their demand to convene an urgent Cabinet meeting over the tribunal crisis, Health Minister Mohammed Jawad Khalifeh said on Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV.

A senior official in Hariri's Future Movement, Mustafa Alloush, said Hariri would not succumb to "pressure and ultimatums."
Careful Saad, and you might want to check the road for recently-repaired potholes...
"The prime minister is not opposed to a meeting in principle, but he has commitments outside Lebanon now," Alloush told The Associated Press. Hariri, whose coalition has been sharing power with the Iranian-backed militant group, was to meet Wednesday with President Barack Obama in Washington to discuss the crisis.

Fox News reports they've gone ahead and done it.
An-Nahar scroll:
5:32pm Minister of State Adnan Sayyed Hussein announced in a statement his resignation from Cabinet.
5:17pm Agence France Presse: Prime Minister Saad Hariri went into talks with U.S. President Barack Obama at the moment that Opposition ministers resigned from the Lebanese government.
5:14pm Bassil: Our decision is constitutional and legal. We are making room for a new government in order for it to perform its duties.
5:12pm Bassil: The prime minister is faced with choosing either Beirut and Washington or Beirut and any other capital. We have taken our choice through adhering to the institutions.
5:10pm Bassil: We announce our resignation from government and we turn to the prime minister to speed up the formation of a new Cabinet.
5:08pm Energy Minister Jebran Bassil: We thank Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for their efforts to reach a settlement and we are sorry that the efforts have been missed.
5:07pm Minister Abdullah arrived at Rabieh and the opposition ministers took their places to start the press conference.
5:00pm OTV: The opposition will announce its statement within minutes. The delay was caused by Minister Ali Abdullah's late arrival to Rabieh from the airport.

Just a few thoughts:
  • Thus passeth another Government of National Unity™, with the majority held hostage to the minority.

  • This being Leb, there will probably be another Government of National Unity™ down the road, featuring the same old hacks doing the same old thing.

  • This is a desperation move on the part of Hezbollah. They expect the Special Tribunal report to name names, dates, times, and maybe even where the money comes from. "The Resistance" gets painted a the assassins they are but that they've been pretending not to be.

  • If this doesn't kill the Special Tribunal they're going to have to try and take over the government themselves. Failing that, Syria will be invited in to "restore order."

  • Hezbollah's owners in Teheran can't be happy with this. They've been tromping inexorably toward total control of the Leb satrapy and now this threatens the ultimate end. It's not all that much a threat, but it's there.

  • The UN commission's been scared to release the indictments and the government's been scared to receive them, which has had the net effect of exacerbating the tension.

  • Aoun has been shown to be a puppet.

  • Jumblatt, whose reputation was actually gleaming prior to this, has shown himself to be a poltroon.

  • Amal has reminded people that it's nothing but an arm of Hezbollah.

  • Samir Geagea is a really gutsy guy and Hezbollah will probably assassinate him next.

  • The Lebs have been reminded that the Shiite 34 percent of the population is in effective control.

  • There's barely anything about this on the teevee. The shooting in Arizona and the left-right political pie fight is considered ever so much more important than this.
Posted by:tipper

#12  Second read.
First though that said Topless.
Cold here, must have been visualizing the PP.
Posted by: Skidmark   2011-01-12 21:43  

#11  Fred, thanks for your analysis. It wasn't there when I checked the burg this morning and it didn't occur to me to go back and see.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain   2011-01-12 21:17  

#10  OP---Michael J Totten on his blog reported this:

Hezbollah had 10,000 rockets before the war in 2006. Now it has between 40,000 and 50,000. Some are stored in warehouses. Others are hidden away a few at a time in private homes.

Not cleaning out Hizb'Allah in 2006 was a huge mistake by Israel. Now the ante is upped at least 4-fold.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2011-01-12 20:39  

#9  Not ONE word in the Lame stream Media, But full of reports that the hospital where Gifford is recovering is firing a lot of staff over revealing whether Gifford is alive or not.
(Must keep Priorities straight, Fill the News with fluff and ignore any real thought provoking Truths)
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2011-01-12 20:31  

#8  E.G. DER SPIEGEL/MEMRI/TOPIX > VIOLENCE MAY SOON RETURN TO EGYPT.

and

* TOPIX > TALIBAN LOSING ITS GRIP [losing?] IN AFGHANISTAN.

Set up new Bases = Camps in CENTRAL ASIA = FORMER SOVIET -STANS, + EXPAND EAST AFRICA JIHAD = ISLAMIST INSURGENCIES outwardly into Central Africa???
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2011-01-12 19:19  

#7  IMO this so-called "collapse" of the Hezzie-Hizzie-Hazzie-Huzzie, etal. led Lebanese Govt. may had been PRE-PLANNED TO COINCIDE WID MUQTADA SADR'S RETURN TO IRAQ FROM EXILE IN IRAN, which in turn coincides wid AFPAK Milterrs = Burqua/Hard Boyz setting up in CENTRAL ASIAN regions OUTSIDE OF AFPAK.

SAME METHOD, CONCEPTS WE SEE IN EAST AFRICAN = SOMALIA, etc. JIHAD, NOW EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AFRICA WHILE INTENSIFYING IN NORTH AFRICA.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2011-01-12 19:14  

#6  Hezbollah is between a rock and a hard place. If they physically take over Lebanon, Israel will have no qualms about destroying the entire country the next time Hezbollah attacks Israel.

Next time, Israel will be totally thorough, and may even use some of its nuclear weapons against Lebanon. That's about the only choice they have against over 40,000 Hezbollah rockets and missiles.

If I were the members of UNIFIL, I'd be packing up and withdrawing as rapidly as possible. Hezbollah will only use them as hostages against the Israelis, and the Israelis may just say "SC$$$ It".

Neither Iran nor Syria can do anything to stop Hezbollah from doing whatever it's about to do, because Hezbollah is desperate. Desperate people make bad choices and big mistakes.

I'd be willing to bet money that there's an Israeli sub with several nuclear-tipped cruise missiles somewhere either in the Persian Gulf or the Indian Ocean. I'm sure they "pop up" every now and then, just to give Iran jitters. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a US nuke sub or three in the same general area, with a similar mission.

The Muddled East is once again on the verge of war.
Posted by: Old Patriot   2011-01-12 16:40  

#5  Why quit the government when you can target the son too? Duh!
Posted by: Uleger Barnsmell4617   2011-01-12 15:32  

#4  Is there somewhere Hariri could go besides back to Beirut? Maybe he could ask about monthly rates at his hotel in DC.
Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305   2011-01-12 13:50  

#3  The question in my mind is "What is the Syrian army doing?"
Posted by: Anonymoose   2011-01-12 11:33  

#2  Leb "government" down. Can war with Israel be far behind?
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2011-01-12 11:31  

#1  Hezbollah Plans to Topple Lebanese Government

They just did, with all 11 Hezbollah ministers resigning. Meeting with Obama now.
Posted by: Gerthudion Unump7993   2011-01-12 10:58  

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