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| Final Gallup Poll: "Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up" |
| 2010-11-01 |
| Gallup models the number of seats a party will control based on that party's share of the national two-party vote for the House of Representatives, using historical voting data in midterm elections from 1946 to 2006. The model takes into account the majority party in Congress entering the elections. Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible. It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained. |
| Posted by:GolfBravoUSMC |
| #8 That was 99% Irish Democrats. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2010-11-01 23:54 |
| #7 Noraid? |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2010-11-01 13:32 |
#6
Really? How many Republicans helped Code Pink slip cash and supplies to the jihadis in Iraq? "No difference" my ass... |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2010-11-01 13:29 |
| #5 “In this environment, it would be wise for all Republicans to remember that their team didn’t win, the other team lost." Scott Rasmussen. |
| Posted by: Whiskey Mike 2010-11-01 11:45 |
| #4 "...we're not electing them so much as un-electing the Dhimmicrats." Precisely on target. We will have to ride herd on them for quite a while. They work for us, although they would like to think otherwise. |
| Posted by: Whiskey Mike 2010-11-01 11:27 |
| #3 Prediction Political Class Brand B to win market share over Political Class Brand A. Apart from Marketing the contents of Brand A and Brand B are identical Brand A's image has fallen after new management failed to perform leaving Brand B to pick up share by default. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2010-11-01 09:31 |
| #2 Pubs had better remember: we're not electing them so much as un-electing the Dhimmicrats. If the Pubs don't do what we want them to do, we'll un-elect them in '12. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2010-11-01 09:24 |
| #1 all the latest polls at this link |
| Posted by: Water Modem 2010-11-01 08:59 |